# Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 12 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbrbi
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.256Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 29¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-ajud |
| Shohei Ohtani | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-soht |
| Kyle Schwarber | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-ksch |
| Junior Caminero | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-jcam |
| Freddie Freeman | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-freddie-freeman-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-ffre |
| Matt Olson | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-mols |
| Julio Rodríguez | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julio-rodrguez-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-jrod |
| Bryce Harper | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-bhar |
| Rafael Devers | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rafael-devers-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-rdev |
| Gunnar Henderson | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gunnar-henderson-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-ghen |
| Yordan Alvarez | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-yalv |
| Brent Rooker | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brent-rooker-lead-pro-baseball-in-rbis-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbrbi-26-broo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 16 |
| 2026-04-26 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 18 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Aaron Judge +5pp 24→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 6% probability that Junior Caminero will finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the most RBIs among all players. The low probability reflects that leading the league in RBIs typically requires both elite offensive production and consistent playing time throughout a 162-game season. Caminero's chances depend on whether he maintains his current performance level, stays healthy, and receives sufficient at-bats. The outcome will be determined by comparing final RBI totals across all MLB players when the regular season concludes in late September 2026. Key considerations include Caminero's year-to-date performance relative to established sluggers, his team's lineup construction, and whether any injuries affect his availability or that of competitors with higher market probabilities.

### Key factors

- Caminero's current 2026 season RBI pace compared to established league leaders like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and other high-volume run producers
- Whether Caminero maintains regular starting status and receives consistent at-bats throughout the remainder of the season
- His historical volatility in performance and injury history relative to competitors with longer track records of sustained production
- The strength of Caminero's team's roster and batting order, which determines his opportunity to drive in runs
- Comparison of Caminero's total through August 2026 versus frontrunners, as this would indicate whether he can realistically close any gap by season's end

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbrbi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbrbi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.