# Will Jeremy Peña lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 17 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbruns
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.608Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $173

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 4¢ | — | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-mols |
| Shohei Ohtani | 31¢ | ±0 | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-soht |
| Aaron Judge | 17¢ | +1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-ajud |
| Pete Alonso | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-alonso-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-palo |
| Junior Caminero | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-jcam |
| Freddie Freeman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-freddie-freeman-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-ffre |
| José Ramírez | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-ramrez-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-jram |
| Julio Rodríguez | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julio-rodrguez-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-jrod |
| Juan Soto | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-juan-soto-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-the-2-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-jsot |
| Manny Machado | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manny-machado-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-mmac |
| Cal Raleigh | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cal-raleigh-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-cral |
| Bryce Harper | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-bhar |
| Rafael Devers | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rafael-devers-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-rdev |
| Yordan Alvarez | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-yalv |
| Kyle Tucker | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-tucker-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-ktuc |
| Brent Rooker | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brent-rooker-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-broo |
| Adley Rutschman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adley-rutschman-lead-pro-baseball-in-runs-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbruns-26-arut |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 41 |
| 2026-04-23 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 33 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Aaron Judge +5pp 10→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 5% probability that Jeremy Peña finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more runs scored than all other players. Peña led the league in runs in 2024 but faces competition from established high-volume scorers. The market is driven by two primary factors: Peña's historical performance trajectory and baseline expectations for top offensive players who typically generate more opportunities to score. The 2026 regular season runs-scored leader will be determined by October 2026 when final statistics are compiled, with mid-season performance metrics offering early signals about contenders' pace. Early trades indicate modest confidence in Peña relative to other statistical leaders, suggesting market participants view the field as more likely to produce the runs leader this season.

### Key factors

- Peña scored 108 runs in 2024 (league-leading) but base rates suggest regression given typical MLB volatility in run-scoring rates year-to-year
- The 2026 Astros roster composition and offensive lineup structure will determine Peña's plate appearances and scoring opportunities relative to 2024
- Comparison players like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and other elite hitters have historically competed for runs-scored leader; their roster health and performance directly impacts Peña's probability
- MLB's seasonal pace and weather patterns affect overall run-scoring environment; a lower-scoring 2026 season would compress the distribution of run totals
- Peña's contract situation and team prioritization of offensive lineup construction will influence batting order position and frequency of at-bats

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbruns
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbruns

## License

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