# Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 13 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbsteals
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.076Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $714

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasim Nuñez | 9¢ | +1pp | $714 | kalshi | /markets/will-nasim-nuez-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-nnun |
| Elly De La Cruz | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elly-de-la-cruz-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-ecru |
| Chandler Simpson | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chandler-simpson-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-csim |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-bwit |
| Jakob Marsee | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jakob-marsee-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-jmar |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-crow-armstrong-lead-pro-baseball-in-stea-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-pcro |
| José Caballero | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-caballero-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-jcab |
| José Ramírez | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-ramrez-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-jram |
| Victor Scott II | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-victor-scott-ii-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-vsco |
| Oneil Cruz | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oneil-cruz-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-ocru |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jazz-chisholm-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-jchi |
| Xavier Edwards | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-xavier-edwards-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-xedw |
| Trea Turner | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trea-turner-lead-pro-baseball-in-steals-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbsteals-26-ttur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 31 |
| 2026-05-08 | 7 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects the 7% probability that José Ramírez will record the most stolen bases across all MLB players during the 2026 regular season. Ramírez is a talented infielder, but historically, stolen base leaders tend to come from players with both speed and high plate appearances—factors that vary significantly year to year. The probability is influenced by his past performance relative to other base-stealing threats in the league, injuries that could limit playing time, and how frequently his team employs aggressive base-running strategies. The resolution will depend on complete 2026 regular season statistics compiled by MLB, which typically conclude in early October. Changes to this probability would likely come from spring training performance reports or significant roster moves affecting elite speedsters.

### Key factors

- Ramírez's historical stolen base totals and rank among MLB leaders in recent seasons
- Availability and performance of other known base-stealing threats (Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge's teammates, etc.) throughout 2026
- Ramírez's plate appearance rate and at-bat volume, which directly correlates with steal opportunities
- Team offensive strategy and coaching decisions regarding aggressive baserunning in 2026
- Injury status entering and during the 2026 regular season, which would impact games played and steal opportunities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbsteals
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbsteals

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.