# Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 19 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbtriples
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.488Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-ajud |
| Shohei Ohtani | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-soht |
| Byron Buxton | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byron-buxton-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-bbux |
| Jung Hoo Lee | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jung-hoo-lee-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-jhoo |
| Daylen Lile | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daylen-lile-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-dlil |
| Zach McKinstry | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zach-mckinstry-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-zmck |
| Freddie Freeman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-freddie-freeman-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-ffre |
| Matt Olson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-mols |
| José Ramírez | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-ramrez-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-jram |
| Juan Soto | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-juan-soto-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-jsot |
| Mickey Moniak | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mickey-moniak-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-mmon |
| Cal Raleigh | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cal-raleigh-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-cral |
| Bryce Harper | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-bhar |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-bwit |
| Michael Busch | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-busch-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-mbus |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gunnar-henderson-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-ghen |
| Michael Harris II | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-harris-ii-lead-pro-baseball-in-triple-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-mhar |
| Kyle Tucker | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-tucker-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-ktuc |
| Brent Rooker | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brent-rooker-lead-pro-baseball-in-triples-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbtriples-26-broo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 11 |
| 2026-04-28 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 3 |
| 2026-05-03 | 8 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Bobby Witt Jr. will lead Major League Baseball in triples during the 2026 regular season. The 6% probability reflects that leading the league in triples is an uncommon achievement requiring both sustained playing time and a specific skill profile—speed combined with hitting ability. Witt Jr. is a high-quality player but not historically a triples leader. The probability would shift based on his actual triple production through the season, comparative performance from other league leaders like faster outfielders or high-average hitters, and injury status across the league. The resolution will become clearer as the regular season progresses, with final determination at the season's end in early October 2026. Triples remain a relatively rare statistic influenced by ballpark dimensions, player health, and lineup construction.

### Key factors

- Bobby Witt Jr. has not led MLB in triples in prior seasons; 2022-2025 data shows other players consistently surpass typical annual triple totals
- MLB triples leaders typically accumulate 10-20+ triples per season, requiring consistent at-bats and specific hitting patterns that trade power for base hits
- Witt Jr.'s playing time, injury history, and actual triple production through May-September 2026 will determine outcome
- Ballpark factors and leadoff/speed-based hitter prevalence in competing lineups create variable competition for the league lead
- Resolution occurs at end of 2026 MLB regular season in October when official statistics are finalized

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbtriples
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbtriples

## License

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