# Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 9 contracts — refreshed 55 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbwar
Updated: 2026-07-24T03:20:49.867Z
Category: geopolitics
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $922

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 32¢ | +3pp | $818 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-crow-armstrong-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-pcro |
| Shohei Ohtani | 46¢ | ±0 | $104 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-wins-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-soht |
| Byron Buxton | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byron-buxton-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-wins-ab-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-bbux |
| Brice Turang | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brice-turang-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-wins-ab-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-btur |
| Cody Bellinger | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cody-bellinger-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-wins-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-cbel |
| Carlos Rodon | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carlos-rodon-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-wins-ab-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-crod |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristopher-sanchez-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-w-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-csan |
| Corey Seager | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-corey-seager-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-wins-ab-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-csea |
| Dansby Swanson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dansby-swanson-lead-pro-baseball-in-war-wins-kalshi-kxleadermlbwar-26-dswa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 60 |
| 2026-07-09 | 3 |
| 2026-07-17 | 9 |
| 2026-07-23 | 50 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-20 · Pete Crow-Armstrong +6pp 11→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Pete Crow-Armstrong +3pp 16→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Shohei Ohtani −3pp 52→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Shohei Ohtani +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts a 8% chance that Corey Seager finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) among all players. WAR combines offensive and defensive contributions into a single metric, making it broader than single-category leaders like home runs or ERA. The low probability reflects that Seager faces competition from perennial elite performers across multiple positions and specialties. Historical patterns show WAR leaders typically come from among a small group of consistently dominant hitters and pitchers. The market's 8% assessment suggests Seager is viewed as a solid player but not among the consensus top-tier candidates for this award. Resolution will occur after the regular season ends in early October 2026, when official statistics and WAR calculations are finalized.

### Key factors

- Seager's age (36 in 2026) and historical injury frequency compared to younger elite competitors
- His defensive positioning (shortstop) versus designated hitters or elite pitchers who typically accumulate higher WAR totals
- Season-to-date and career WAR trajectory relative to other eligible players through May 2026
- Whether Seager maintains 2024-2025 performance levels or experiences age-related decline in 2026
- Availability of related contracts for home run or OPS leaders showing market confidence in specific competitors over Seager

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbwar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbwar

## License

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