# Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 10 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbwins
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.512Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $674

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 9¢ | +1pp | $660 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-sale-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-csal |
| Bryan Woo | 4¢ | −1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryan-woo-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-the-2-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-bwoo |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 12¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-yoshinobu-yamamoto-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-yyam |
| Shohei Ohtani | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-soht |
| Max Fried | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-max-fried-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-the-2-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-mfri |
| Jacob deGrom | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-degrom-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-jdeg |
| Framber Valdez | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-framber-valdez-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-fval |
| Cole Ragans | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cole-ragans-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-the-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-crag |
| Jesús Luzardo | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jess-luzardo-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-jluz |
| Logan Gilbert | 7¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-logan-gilbert-lead-pro-baseball-in-wins-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbwins-26-lgil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Chris Sale +3pp 4→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Chris Sale will record the most wins by any pitcher in Major League Baseball during the 2026 regular season. The 5% probability reflects skepticism about Sale leading the league in a category determined by both pitching performance and team wins. Sale's health status and pitch availability are primary factors; he has experienced significant injuries in recent years that would need to remain resolved. Competition from other elite starters like Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, and Corbin Burnes also matters, as does his team's offensive support. The outcome will be largely determined by Sale's durability through the full season and where he ranks among the league's most consistent winners by September 2026.

### Key factors

- Sale's injury history and durability; he has missed substantial time due to various injuries and would need to stay healthy and active throughout the 162-game season
- Win totals typically range 18-24 for league leaders, requiring both strong pitching performance and team success; Sale's team would need consistent run support
- Competition from multiple other elite starting pitchers who are also positioned to accumulate significant wins
- Starts pitched matters; leading in wins often requires 30+ starts in a season, making availability and innings pitched critical thresholds
- League-wide ERA leaders do not always lead in wins; the relationship between individual pitching dominance and team victories is imperfect

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbwins

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.