# Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 7 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflptds
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.272Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-stafford-lead-pro-football-in-passing-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-mstafford9 |
| Dak Prescott | 3¢ | −77pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dak-prescott-lead-pro-football-in-passing-tou-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-dprescott4 |
| Bo Nix | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bo-nix-lead-pro-football-in-passing-touchdown-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-bnix10 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 80¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-lead-pro-football-in-passing-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-pmahomes15 |
| Jordan Love | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-love-lead-pro-football-in-passing-touc-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-jlove10 |
| Bryce Young | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-young-lead-pro-football-in-passing-touc-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-byoung9 |
| Brock Purdy | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brock-purdy-lead-pro-football-in-passing-touc-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-bpurdy13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 80 |
| 2026-05-08 | 3 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Dak Prescott −77pp 80→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Drake Maye will record more passing touchdowns than any other NFL player during the 2026-2027 regular season. The 34% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, suggesting roughly 2-to-1 odds against him leading the league. Maye's ability to claim this title depends primarily on his team's offensive scheme and his own health and consistency over a full 17-game season. The main downward pressure on this probability stems from competition from established elite quarterbacks and the unpredictability of individual statistical achievements across the entire league. Resolution will occur following the final game of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season in early January 2027, when official passing touchdown totals become final and verifiable. Until then, performance through the first half of the season (around mid-November 2026) will likely shift market sentiment significantly, as early leader status tends to correlate with full-season outcomes.

### Key factors

- Maye's actual touchdown pass rate through the first 8-9 games of the 2026 season, compared to other starting quarterbacks
- The Houston Texans' offensive play-calling philosophy and usage patterns for pass attempts versus run plays
- Injury status of Maye and other top-tier quarterback competitors during the regular season
- Competition from at least 10-15 other capable NFL starting quarterbacks with similar statistical opportunities
- End-of-season passing touchdown totals for the statistical leader and next closest competitors, which determine the winner

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflptds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadernflptds

## License

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