# Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 10 contracts — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflpyds
Updated: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.545Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $983

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 4¢ | — | $655 | kalshi | /markets/will-trevor-lawrence-lead-pro-football-in-passing-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-tlawrence16 |
| Justin Herbert | 3¢ | −3pp | $267 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-herbert-lead-pro-football-in-passing-y-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-jherbert10 |
| Dak Prescott | 5¢ | −8pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-dak-prescott-lead-pro-football-in-passing-yar-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-dprescott4 |
| Joe Burrow | 7¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-burrow-lead-pro-football-in-passing-yards-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-jburrow9 |
| Jared Goff | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-goff-lead-pro-football-in-passing-yards-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-jgoff16 |
| Bo Nix | 3¢ | −20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bo-nix-lead-pro-football-in-passing-yards-for-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-bnix10 |
| Brock Purdy | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brock-purdy-lead-pro-football-in-passing-yard-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-bpurdy13 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-stafford-lead-pro-football-in-passing-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-mstafford9 |
| Sam Darnold | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-darnold-lead-pro-football-in-passing-yard-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-sdarnold14 |
| Tyler Shough | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-shough-lead-pro-football-in-passing-yar-kalshi-kxleadernflpyds-27-tshough6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 5 |
| 2026-06-28 | 1 |
| 2026-07-05 | 11 |
| 2026-07-11 | 5 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · Bo Nix −20pp 24→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Dak Prescott −8pp 11→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% chance that Dak Prescott finishes the 2026-2027 NFL regular season with more passing yards than all other quarterbacks. The probability reflects that while Prescott has been a productive passer throughout his career, leading the league in passing yards requires both exceptional individual performance and circumstantial factors like game script and team offensive volume. The metric will be determined by final regular season statistics released in early 2027. Prescott's probability compares closely to Joe Burrow at 7% but significantly above Justin Herbert at 3%, suggesting modest differentiation among similarly-positioned candidates. Upward movement would typically follow strong early-season performance or injury to traditional league leaders, while downward pressure comes from competition among numerous capable starters and Prescott's historical ranking relative to top passing-yard producers.

### Key factors

- Prescott's career passing yard average compared to current league leaders and whether he ranks in the top 5 historically for this metric
- Team offensive scheme and projected pass attempts relative to Dallas's typical play-calling patterns and game scripts
- Health status of established passing-yard leaders entering the 2026 season and their respective team circumstances
- Prescott's age, injury history, and any reported changes to his physical conditioning or performance trajectory
- Dallas's playoff positioning and whether late-season games are meaningful contests or blowouts affecting passing volume

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflpyds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadernflpyds

## License

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