# Will Jaylen Waddle lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 11 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflrtds
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.185Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-waddle-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-jwaddle17 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxon-smith-njigba-lead-pro-football-in-recei-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-jsmithnjigba11 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amon-ra-st-brown-lead-pro-football-in-receivi-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-astbrown14 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ceedee-lamb-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-to-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-clamb88 |
| Davante Adams | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-davante-adams-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-dadams17 |
| George Pickens | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-pickens-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-gpickens3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-t-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-jchase1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-jefferson-lead-pro-football-in-receivi-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-jjefferson18 |
| Nico Collins | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nico-collins-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-t-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-ncollins12 |
| Puka Nacua | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-puka-nacua-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-tou-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-pnacua12 |
| A.J. Brown | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-brown-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-touch-kalshi-kxleadernflrtds-27-abrown11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 1 |
| 2026-07-13 | 3 |
| 2026-07-20 | 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | 4 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Ja'Marr Chase +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Justin Jefferson −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 19% probability that Jaylen Waddle will lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns during the 2026-2027 regular season. Waddle currently ranks third among competing receivers in market pricing, behind Ja'Marr Chase at 22% and ahead of Emeka Egbuka at 17%. The probability reflects competition from established high-volume receivers and uncertainty about target allocation and offensive efficiency across the league. Waddle's probability could shift based on offseason trades, coaching changes, or preseason performance indicators. The 2026 NFL regular season begins in September 2026, which will definitively resolve this outcome. Leading the league in receiving touchdowns typically requires sustained target volume, red-zone usage, and staying healthy throughout a 17-game schedule.

### Key factors

- Jaylen Waddle's target share and red-zone touches relative to other elite receivers during the 2026 season
- Miami Dolphins' offensive scheme and whether it prioritizes passing to wide receivers versus other playmakers
- Injury status of competing receivers (Chase, Egbuka, and others) throughout the 2026 regular season
- Waddle's historical touchdown conversion rate compared to the league-leading receiver's typical efficiency
- Team playoff positioning in late season, which may affect playing time or offensive philosophy in final weeks

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflrtds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadernflrtds

## License

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