# Will Ashton Jeanty lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 11 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflrushtds
Updated: 2026-09-25T08:20:50.018Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $322

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9¢ | +2pp | $232 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-allen-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-touch-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-jallen17 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 23¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-jahmyr-gibbs-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-tou-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-jgibbs0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4¢ | −3pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-javonte-williams-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-jwilliams33 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 8¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-taylor-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-jtaylor28 |
| James Cook III | 6¢ | −1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-cook-iii-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-t-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-jcook4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 11¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-mccaffrey-lead-pro-football-in-rush-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-cmccaffrey23 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashton-jeanty-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-to-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-ajeanty2 |
| Cam Skattebo | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cam-skattebo-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-tou-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-cskattebo44 |
| Derrick Henry | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-derrick-henry-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-to-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-dhenry22 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-jacobs-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-touc-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-jjacobs8 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenneth-walker-iii-lead-pro-football-in-rushi-kalshi-kxleadernflrushtds-27-kwalker9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | 10 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Cam Skattebo −21pp 32→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Christian McCaffrey +13pp 2→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Josh Allen +7pp 3→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Josh Allen +5pp 10→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Josh Allen −5pp 15→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Ashton Jeanty will accumulate more rushing touchdowns than all other NFL running backs during the 2026-2027 regular season. At 6%, the probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether Jeanty leads the league in this specific metric. The low probability suggests that other backs—particularly Derrick Henry (8%), Omarion Hampton (6%), Christian McCaffrey (6%), and James Cook III (7%)—are viewed as having better odds at the outright lead. The market appears to be pricing in competition from multiple high-performing runners rather than confidence in any single back. Key variables include injury history for top contenders, changes in offensive game plans, workload distribution among backup runners, and seasonal performance momentum. Resolution will occur after the regular season concludes in early January 2027, when official NFL rushing touchdown statistics are finalized.

### Key factors

- Derrick Henry and James Cook III are trading at higher probabilities (8% and 7% respectively), suggesting market participants view them as more likely leaders than Jeanty
- Jeanty's actual workload and scoring opportunities depend on his team's offensive strategy, red-zone usage patterns, and competition from other offensive weapons
- Injury status of top rushing touchdown contenders before and during the season will significantly impact touchdown distribution
- The market shows no single back with probability above 8%, indicating leadership in rushing TDs is widely dispersed among multiple candidates
- Historical consistency: backing into the rushing TD lead typically requires both high volume and high efficiency in the red zone over 17 games

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflrushtds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadernflrushtds

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