# Will Jonathan Taylor lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 9 contracts — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflrushyds
Updated: 2026-07-13T04:20:51.015Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 3¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-taylor-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-jtaylor28 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3¢ | +1pp | $940 | kalshi | /markets/will-bijan-robinson-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-y-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-brobinson7 |
| Omarion Hampton | 3¢ | +1pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-omarion-hampton-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-ohampton8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chuba-hubbard-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-ya-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-chubbard30 |
| Derrick Henry | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-derrick-henry-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-ya-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-dhenry22 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jahmyr-gibbs-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-yar-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-jgibbs0 |
| James Cook III | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-cook-iii-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-y-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-jcook4 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenneth-walker-iii-lead-pro-football-in-rushi-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-kwalker9 |
| Kyren Williams | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyren-williams-lead-pro-football-in-rushing-y-kalshi-kxleadernflrushyds-27-kwilliams23 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 6 |
| 2026-06-29 | 7 |
| 2026-07-06 | 3 |
| 2026-07-13 | 5 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-12 · Jonathan Taylor −6pp 9→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Bijan Robinson −6pp 9→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · James Cook III −5pp 13→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 5% probability means the market estimates roughly a 1-in-20 chance that Jonathan Taylor finishes the 2026-2027 NFL season with more rushing yards than all other running backs. This low odds reflects both Taylor's current status in the league and competition from younger backs. Key drivers include Taylor's recent injury history and workload compared to more established bell-cow backs like Jahmyr Gibbs and emerging talent like Ashton Jeanty, who commands higher market probability at 6%. The resolution hinges on how teams deploy their running backs throughout the full 17-game regular season, making weekly production data and late-season performance critical. Market estimates suggest bookmakers view other candidates as substantially more likely to lead the league in this statistical category.

### Key factors

- Taylor's recent injury history and limited touches relative to lead backs on contending teams
- Ashton Jeanty (6¢) and Jahmyr Gibbs (4¢) are assigned higher probabilities, indicating market preference for younger or higher-volume alternatives
- The outcome depends entirely on cumulative regular-season rushing yards through all 17 games, resolvable only after the 2026-2027 season concludes
- Taylor's current roster situation and projected snap count/workload allocation compared to other league leaders
- Competitor running backs' offensive line quality, team passing game strength, and game script tendencies that drive running back opportunity volume

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadernflrushyds

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