# Will Marvin Harrison Jr. lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 5 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflryds
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:21:00.390Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 75¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marvin-harrison-jr-lead-pro-football-in-recei-kalshi-kxleadernflryds-27-mharrison18 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ceedee-lamb-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-ya-kalshi-kxleadernflryds-27-clamb88 |
| Puka Nacua | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-puka-nacua-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-yar-kalshi-kxleadernflryds-27-pnacua12 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-waddle-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-kalshi-kxleadernflryds-27-jwaddle17 |
| Mike Evans | 75¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-evans-lead-pro-football-in-receiving-yar-kalshi-kxleadernflryds-27-mevans13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2 |
| 2026-04-19 | 2 |
| 2026-04-26 | 3 |
| 2026-05-03 | 4 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Puka Nacua +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Puka Nacua −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 52% chance that Marvin Harrison Jr. finishes the 2026 NFL regular season with more receiving yards than any other player. The probability reflects uncertainty about Harrison's continued development and injury risk, balanced against his young age and Philadelphia Eagles' offensive scheme. Key drivers include whether he maintains or improves on previous season performance and how his target volume compares to elite receivers on other teams. The 2026 regular season (September 2026 through early 2027) will provide the definitive data, with final statistics compiled once all games conclude. Changes to this probability would likely follow training camp reports, preseason performance, and early-season production data that clarifies whether Harrison is on pace for a receiving yards title.

### Key factors

- Marvin Harrison Jr.'s receiving target volume and efficiency in 2026, compared to other elite receivers like CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs
- Injury occurrence or absence for Harrison or competing receivers during the 2026 season
- Philadelphia Eagles' offensive play-calling and passing volume relative to other NFL teams' aerial attacks
- Performance of Harrison's quarterback and offensive line stability affecting pass protection and opportunity
- Emergence of younger receivers or career years from established players that could exceed Harrison's yardage total

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflryds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadernflryds

## License

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