# Will Tuli Tuipulotu lead Pro Football in Sacks for the 2026-2027 Regular Season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 11 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflsacks
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:08.670Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $79

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Hendrickson | 11¢ | +2pp | $79 | kalshi | /markets/will-trey-hendrickson-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-f-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-thendrickson91 |
| Byron Young | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byron-young-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-th-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-byoung0 |
| Chase Young | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-young-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-th-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-cyoung99 |
| Josh Sweat | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-sweat-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-the-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-jsweat10 |
| Maxx Crosby | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maxx-crosby-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-th-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-mcrosby98 |
| Micah Parsons | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-micah-parsons-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-mparsons1 |
| Nik Bonitto | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nik-bonitto-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-th-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-nbonitto15 |
| Nick Bosa | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-bosa-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-the-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-nbosa97 |
| Quinnen Williams | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-quinnen-williams-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-f-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-qwilliams92 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tuli-tuipulotu-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-for-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-ttuipulotu45 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-will-anderson-jr-lead-pro-football-in-sacks-f-kalshi-kxleadernflsacks-27-wanderson51 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 2 |
| 2026-05-14 | 2 |
| 2026-05-21 | 3 |
| 2026-05-28 | 4 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · Nik Bonitto +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Nik Bonitto −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Tuli Tuipulotu will record the most sacks across the NFL during the 2026-2027 regular season. The 3% probability reflects that he faces competition from established elite pass rushers and that leading the league requires both sustained production and health over a full 17-game schedule. Tuipulotu would need to outpace multiple proven performers like Brian Burns, Chase Young, and Alex Highsmith. The main factors affecting this probability are his current sack trajectory, injury history, team defensive scheme changes, and whether he maintains elite production levels through the season. The outcome will be definitively resolved in January 2027 when the NFL regular season concludes and final sack totals are recorded.

### Key factors

- Tuipulotu's sack production rate through the first half of the 2026-2027 season compared to other elite pass rushers
- Availability and injury status of other top edge rushers, particularly those currently priced at 3% or higher
- Changes to his team's defensive scheme or playing time allocation that could reduce opportunities
- His historical sack average per game and whether 2026-2027 represents a typical or career-high performance level
- Strength of schedule factors affecting defensive opportunities in the second half of the season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadernflsacks
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadernflsacks

## License

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