# Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 19 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadersout
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:05:50.781Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-02

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Putin | 9¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-putin-leave-president-of-russia-befo-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-vputrus |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 63¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-miguel-daz-canel-leave-first-secretary-of-the-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-mdiacpc |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 47¢ | +1pp | $758 | kalshi | /markets/will-benjamin-netanyahu-leave-prime-minister-of-is-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-bnetisr |
| Keir Starmer | 65¢ | −2pp | $559 | kalshi | /markets/will-keir-starmer-leave-prime-minister-of-the-unit-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-kstauk |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 15¢ | ±0 | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-leave-president-of-ukrain-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-vzelukr |
| Gustavo Petro | 95¢ | −1pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-gustavo-petro-leave-president-of-colombia-bef-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-gpetcol |
| Emmanuel Macron | 11¢ | ±0 | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-emmanuel-macron-leave-president-of-france-bef-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-emacfra |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 26¢ | +1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-delcy-rodriguez-leave-acting-president-of-ven-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-drodapre |
| Javier Milei | 6¢ | −1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-javier-milei-leave-president-of-argentina-bef-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-jmilarg |
| Xi Jinping | 3¢ | −1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-xi-jinping-leave-general-secretary-of-the-com-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-xjinchi |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 19¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-leave-president-of-b-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-lsilbra |
| Christopher Luxon | 51¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-christopher-luxon-leave-prime-minister-of-new-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-pluxpmnz |
| Mark Carney | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-carney-leave-prime-minister-of-canada-be-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-mcarcan |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cyril-ramaphosa-leave-president-of-south-afri-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-cramsafr |
| Giorgia Meloni | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-giorgia-meloni-leave-prime-minister-of-italy-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-gmelita |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-recep-tayyip-erdoan-leave-president-of-trkiye-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-rerdtur |
| Narendra Modi | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-narendra-modi-leave-prime-minister-of-india-b-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-nmodind |
| Sanae Takaichi | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sanae-takaichi-leave-prime-minister-of-japan-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-stakjap |
| Kim Jong Un | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kim-jong-un-leave-supreme-leader-of-north-kor-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-kjondprk |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 38 |
| 2026-04-26 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Mark Carney −5pp 7→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Benjamin Netanyahu +3pp 42→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Emmanuel Macron −3pp 15→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Delcy Rodriguez +3pp 23→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that Mark Carney steps down as Canadian Prime Minister within the next 7.5 months. At 14%, the market suggests it's relatively unlikely but not improbable. The current level reflects baseline political stability expectations, though Canadian politics has experienced leadership transitions, and a Prime Minister's tenure can be affected by electoral pressure, party dynamics, or personal circumstances. The main catalysts that would shift this probability include major policy failures, significant polling declines, internal party pressure, or an unexpected resignation announcement. The most immediate uncertainty resolver would be the next federal election timeline or any formal indication from Carney's office about his political future. The relatively modest probability suggests markets currently view his position as reasonably secure through 2026, barring major disruptions to Canadian political conditions.

### Key factors

- Current polling and approval ratings for Mark Carney's government compared to opposition parties
- Timeline and likelihood of a federal election being called before January 1, 2027
- Historical precedent for Canadian Prime Ministers serving full terms versus resigning mid-mandate
- Public statements or signals from Carney or senior government figures about leadership continuity
- Major policy defeats, confidence votes, or parliamentary dynamics that could destabilize his position

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadersout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadersout

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