# Will Alyssa Thomas lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leaderwnbaast
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.479Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-08

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $69

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | 49¢ | +1pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/will-caitlin-clark-lead-womens-pro-basketball-in-a-kalshi-kxleaderwnbaast-26-cclark22 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 28¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-alyssa-thomas-lead-womens-pro-basketball-in-a-kalshi-kxleaderwnbaast-26-athomas25 |
| Paige Bueckers | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paige-bueckers-lead-womens-pro-basketball-in-kalshi-kxleaderwnbaast-26-pbueckers5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 38 |
| 2026-05-08 | 38 |
| 2026-05-09 | 49 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 27% probability that Alyssa Thomas will lead the WNBA in assists per game during the 2026 regular season. Thomas is a strong playmaker and primary ball-handler for her team, but faces direct competition from other elite distributors, particularly Caitlin Clark (47% probability) and Paige Bueckers (5% probability). Thomas's likelihood depends on whether she maintains her typical assist volume, stays healthy through a full season, and whether her teammates' offensive usage patterns favor high-volume passing opportunities. The market clearly favors Clark as the leader, suggesting either that she's expected to increase her playmaking role in 2026 or that Thomas's past seasons set lower historical benchmarks. The regular season runs October 2025 through September 2026, with the final stat lines determining the outcome definitively.

### Key factors

- Alyssa Thomas's historical assists-per-game average and whether 2026 represents growth, decline, or stability from that baseline
- Whether Thomas's team's offensive system and teammate composition create higher or lower assist opportunities than competitors
- Caitlin Clark's projected role and usage rate, as the 47% contract indicates she is the aggregate favorite to lead the league
- Injury risk over a full 40-game season, which would eliminate Thomas from contention if she misses significant games
- Team performance and pace of play, as winning teams and faster-paced offenses typically generate more assist opportunities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leaderwnbaast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leaderwnbaast

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