# Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Leagues Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 4 contracts — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leaguescup
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:52.642Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 7¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-toluca-win-the-2026-leagues-cup-toluca-kalshi-kxleaguescup-26-tol |
| America | 8¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-america-win-the-2026-leagues-cup-america-kalshi-kxleaguescup-26-ame |
| Cruz Azul | 9¢ | −5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-cruz-azul-win-the-2026-leagues-cup-cruz-azul-kalshi-kxleaguescup-26-cra |
| Columbus | 4¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-columbus-win-the-2026-leagues-cup-columbus-kalshi-kxleaguescup-26-clb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | 10 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · Cruz Azul +10pp 2→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Toluca +6pp 7→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Cruz Azul −5pp 12→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · America +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 6% probability reflects market assessment that Guadalajara has roughly a 1-in-17 chance of winning the 2026 Leagues Cup, a competition featuring top clubs from Mexico and Major League Soccer. This relatively low odds compared to favorites like Miami (5%) and Toluca (12%) suggests traders view Guadalajara as a weaker contender despite the team's historical stature in Mexican football. The probability would likely shift based on squad composition changes during the transfer window, recent tournament performance, and injury status of key players heading into the competition. The tournament structure and format—if it favors certain playing styles or Mexican clubs specifically—could also influence odds. The main resolution point will be the tournament's actual start date and initial match results, which would either validate current valuations or force significant repricing. Current trading volume of $251 in 24 hours indicates modest market interest in this specific outcome.

### Key factors

- Guadalajara's recent domestic league form and squad strength relative to other Mexican entries (America, Toluca, Cruz Azul) who show higher contract prices
- Caliber of international competition, particularly MLS teams favored more heavily in the market (Miami at 5%, suggesting strong preference for American clubs)
- Transfer activity and roster changes for Guadalajara between now and tournament start that would affect competitive capability
- Tournament format structure and whether it systematically advantages or disadvantages Mexican versus MLS-based teams
- Historical Guadalajara performance in Leagues Cup and similar inter-league competitions under current management

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leaguescup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leaguescup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.