# Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the House before the midterms

> Before Nov 3, 2026 leads at 63%, runner-up 29% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavecherfilus
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.224Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026 at 63%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 1, 2026 at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 63¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-representatives-tony-gonzales-e-kalshi-kxleavehousecombo-27jan01-b261103 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 29¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-representatives-tony-gonzales-e-kalshi-kxleavehousecombo-27jan01-b260701 |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 16¢ | −6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-representatives-tony-gonzales-e-kalshi-kxleavehousecombo-27jan01-b260601 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Nov 3, 2026 | Before Jul 1, 2026 | Before Jun 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 35 | 28 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 66 | 36 | 25 |
| 2026-04-30 | 65 | 32 | 24 |
| 2026-05-02 | 65 | — | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 64 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | — | — | 16 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Before Jun 1, 2026 −6pp 22→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavecherfilus
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leavecherfilus
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.