# Will Manon leave Katseye before Aug 1, 2026

> Before 2027 leads at 64%, runner-up 16% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavegroupkatseye
Updated: 2026-08-10T02:20:48.881Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before 2027 at 64%
- Runner-up: Before October at 16%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 64¢ | −2pp | $691 | kalshi | /markets/will-manon-leave-katseye-before-jan-1-2027-before-kalshi-kxleavegroupkatseye-27 |
| Before October | 16¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-manon-leave-katseye-before-oct-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxleavegroupkatseye-26-oct01 |
| Before December | 15¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-manon-leave-katseye-before-dec-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxleavegroupkatseye-26-dec01 |
| Before September | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manon-leave-katseye-before-sep-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxleavegroupkatseye-26-sep01 |
| Before November | 5¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-manon-leave-katseye-before-nov-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxleavegroupkatseye-26-nov01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before 2027 | Before October | Before December |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 42 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 42 | 21 | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 42 | 20 | 35 |
| 2026-07-27 | 61 | 26 | 47 |
| 2026-08-03 | 68 | 18 | 36 |
| 2026-08-08 | 71 | 28 | 60 |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 28 | 58 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Before November +23pp 23→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Before December +21pp 36→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Before November −18pp 46→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Before November +18pp 28→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Before December +18pp 18→36¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that Manon will leave Katseye before August 1, 2026—roughly six weeks from now. The 20-cent price reflects skepticism that a departure occurs within this near-term window. The wider contract structure shows traders assign substantially higher odds to departures occurring later in the year (38-50 cents for November-January timeframes), suggesting market participants see a split scenario: either Manon remains through summer, or if departure happens, it occurs in fall or early 2027. Near-term probability hinges on whether any public announcement, contract dispute, or performance change triggers immediate exit. The tight timeframe and minimal trading volume on this specific contract indicate low conviction either way among active traders, with most uncertainty concentrated on the timing and likelihood of any eventual departure rather than the binary fact of leaving itself.

### Key factors

- Manon's current status and role within Katseye as of mid-June 2026, including any public statements about her tenure
- Whether any contractual events, renewal dates, or performance milestones are scheduled between now and August 1, 2026
- Historical patterns of member departures from Katseye or comparable K-pop/pop groups, and typical notice periods for such announcements
- Recent group activity, release schedule, and public messaging that might signal internal stability or tension
- Existence of any reported disputes, health issues, or scheduling conflicts involving Manon that have become public knowledge

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavegroupkatseye
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leavegroupkatseye

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.