# Will Ruben Gallego be out as House member before July 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 7 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavehouse
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.601Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $30

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | 4¢ | ±0 | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-ro-khanna-be-out-as-house-member-before-july-kalshi-kxleavehouse-26apr-rkha |
| Nancy Mace | 3¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-nancy-mace-be-out-as-house-member-before-july-kalshi-kxleavehouse-26apr-nmac |
| Cory Mills | 25¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-cory-mills-be-out-as-house-member-before-july-kalshi-kxleavehouse-26apr-cmil |
| Ruben Gallego | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ruben-gallego-be-out-as-house-member-before-j-kalshi-kxleavehouse-26apr-rgal |
| Mike Collins | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-collins-be-out-as-house-member-before-ju-kalshi-kxleavehouse-26apr-mcol |
| Mitch McConnell | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitch-mcconnell-be-out-as-senator-before-july-kalshi-kxleavehouse-26apr-mmcc |
| Chuck Edwards | 33¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chuck-edwards-be-out-as-us-house-member-befor-kalshi-kxleavehouse-26may-cedw |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 17 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Cory Mills −7pp 33→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Ro Khanna −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Mitch McConnell −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 8% chance that Ruben Gallego will leave his House seat before July 2026. Gallego currently represents Arizona's 3rd district. The low probability reflects the absence of current indicators suggesting imminent departure—he would need to resign, be expelled, or face circumstances forcing him from office within roughly two months. The probability could shift upward if significant personal circumstances, legal issues, or health crises emerged. With limited time remaining before the resolution date and no scheduled elections or procedural changes that would typically trigger departures, the market assigns relatively low odds to this outcome. The main way this resolves is through official congressional records confirming his status as of July 1, 2026.

### Key factors

- Gallego currently holds the seat with no announced plans to vacate before July 2026
- Members typically leave office through resignation, expulsion, or death—all uncommon events within a two-month window
- No pending legal cases, health issues, or scandals are publicly documented that would create pressure for departure
- The resolution depends on verifiable congressional records showing his official status on or around June 30, 2026
- Market volume is modest at $682 in 24-hour trading, suggesting limited commercial conviction in either direction

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavehouse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leavehouse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.