# Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before July 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 1 contract — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavehousecombo
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.289Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-representatives-tony-gonzales-e-kalshi-kxleavehousecombo-27jan01-b261103 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 52 |
| 2026-06-11 | 35 |
| 2026-06-19 | 33 |
| 2026-06-24 | 31 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract resolves YES if all four named representatives—Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick—depart the House before July 1, 2026, with official effective departure dates recorded. At 64%, the market suggests this outcome is more likely than not, though still uncertain. The probability reflects that departures are individually possible but requiring all four to leave within two months is a high bar. Key drivers include voluntary retirements, special election triggers, or unexpected circumstances affecting each representative. The contract becomes increasingly constrained as time passes; by early June, any representative who hasn't announced departure effectively lowers the probability toward zero. Recent political shifts, personal circumstances, or announced retirements in May 2026 would be primary catalysts for significant price movement. Without current announcements of coordinated departures, the 64% level appears to price in a non-trivial but not dominant expectation of multiple simultaneous House exits.

### Key factors

- As of May 3, 2026, none of these four representatives have announced confirmed departure dates; the contract requires all four to achieve official effective departures within 59 days
- If even one representative has not departed by June 30, the contract resolves NO, making the all-or-nothing structure highly restrictive compared to partial outcomes
- Political circumstances (health issues, electoral challenges, leadership roles elsewhere) that would trigger House departures are not uniform across these four individuals and would need to align unusually
- The deadline creates accelerating pressure: by mid-June, any representative without a filed departure notice essentially eliminates that person's contribution to a YES resolution
- Public announcements or resignation letters with specified effective dates would be the primary real-time signals; absence of such filings in May-June would push probability sharply downward

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavehousecombo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leavehousecombo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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