# Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before May 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavemills
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:50.546Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-04

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cory-mills-leave-the-house-before-the-midterm-kalshi-kxleavemills-26nov03 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 45 |
| 2026-06-11 | 39 |
| 2026-06-18 | 36 |
| 2026-06-26 | 33 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market assesses the probability that U.S. Representative Cory Mills will leave Congress before May 1, 2026—whether through resignation, expulsion, or other means. The 66% probability reflects expectations about potential developments in Mills's tenure, though the timeframe is notably short (less than one year from today). Key drivers of this high probability likely include specific pending investigations, health matters, or other documented circumstances that could force or incentivize departure. The market will resolve based on whether Mills remains a seated member through April 30, 2026. Comparable markets show low probabilities for similar congressional departures (3-6%), suggesting this contract reflects particular circumstances unique to Mills rather than baseline congressional turnover. Resolution hinges on verifiable Congressional Quarterly records and official House records through the deadline.

### Key factors

- Current Congressional status and any formal ethics investigations or disciplinary proceedings against Mills as of May 2026
- Documented health or personal circumstances that could prompt voluntary departure
- Changes in party affiliation, primary challenges, or electoral positioning that might affect holding the seat
- Any pending legal proceedings with potential outcomes before May 1, 2026
- Comparison to baseline congressional departure rates: markets price similar representatives at 3-6%, suggesting this contract reflects Mills-specific risk factors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavemills
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leavemills

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.