# Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 31, 2028 leads at 85%, runner-up 80% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavepowellgov
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.777Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-31

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 31, 2028 at 85%
- Runner-up: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 80%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $548

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 31, 2028 | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-28jan31 |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 80¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-27jun01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 45¢ | +1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26aug01-27 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 35¢ | ±0 | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26nov01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 15¢ | ±0 | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26sep01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26oct01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 7¢ | −3pp | $301 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26aug01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 31, 2028 | Before Jun 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 79 | 78 | 55 |
| 2026-05-25 | 69 | 68 | 42 |
| 2026-06-01 | 86 | 83 | 46 |
| 2026-06-03 | 85 | 82 | 45 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 81 | 46 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −10pp 24→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −5pp 30→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −3pp 10→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 72% probability that Jerome Powell will step down from his Federal Reserve Board position before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. Powell currently serves as Chair of the Federal Reserve, a separate role from his Board membership, though the two are typically held together. The elevated probability reflects uncertainty around potential policy changes, political pressure, or voluntary departure decisions. Key factors include Powell's stated intentions regarding his tenure, any changes in administration positions on Fed leadership, and major economic developments that might influence his decision-making timeline. The contract's relatively low trading volume ($3,388 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market conviction compared to other political outcomes.

### Key factors

- Powell's current dual role as both Federal Reserve Chair and Board member, where Chair succession planning typically occurs around standard term transitions
- Political pressure and rhetoric from administration or Congress regarding Federal Reserve independence and leadership preferences
- Economic conditions and market volatility between May 2026 and January 2027 that could influence Powell's strategic decisions about tenure
- Powell's public statements and congressional testimony regarding his future plans and timeline for any transitions
- Scheduled Federal Reserve meetings and policy announcements that might trigger leadership changes or clarify his position

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leavepowellgov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leavepowellgov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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