# Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Amal Movement (Amal) at 5%
- Runner-up: Lebanese Forces (LF) at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $863

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amal Movement (Amal) | 5¢ | +1pp | $321 | polymarket | /markets/lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner-amal-movemen-polymarket-0xbb4a907e731f7297fc4c1e9dd30facdadd75c2b6fa692ca24a82d5367467559a |
| Lebanese Forces (LF) | 4¢ | ±0 | $542 | polymarket | /markets/lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner-lebanese-for-polymarket-0x7fc8cbbaffb85050f6434b8099e6a88bce4996af4b7dc371edecffdff1102473 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Amal Movement (Amal) | Lebanese Forces (LF) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 5 | 7 |
| 2026-06-05 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6 | 3 |
| 2026-06-17 | 6 | 3 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Lebanese Forces party will win the most seats in Lebanon's parliamentary elections. The Lebanese Forces, a Christian-majority party, is currently assigned an 8% chance despite historical positioning as a major political player. Market pricing likely reflects uncertainty around Lebanon's fragile political environment, including the ongoing influence of Hezbollah and sectarian power-sharing dynamics under the confessional system. The party's actual electoral performance will depend on voter turnout, coalition arrangements, and whether the election occurs as scheduled. Parliamentary elections in Lebanon remain difficult to predict due to frequent political instability and the complexity of its sectarian-based electoral system. The next major catalyst would be the official announcement of election dates and preliminary campaign results, which would clarify which parties can mobilize voter support and form viable coalitions.

### Key factors

- Lebanese Forces historical parliamentary performance and current polling versus the 8% market probability assigned
- The timing and likelihood of elections actually occurring on schedule given Lebanon's history of delayed or postponed electoral processes
- Hezbollah's expected seat allocation and influence on coalition formation, which affects whether other parties like Lebanese Forces can lead government formation
- Voter turnout rates and demographic shifts in Lebanese constituencies that determine Christian vs. Sunni vs. Shia representation
- International involvement and financing of various factions, particularly regional actors' support for competing political blocs

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.