# Lecornu out as French PM by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lecornu-out-as-french-pm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.504Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $30

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 28¢ | ±0 | $30 | polymarket | /markets/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x5008486648e1504fc35d468ab774f4e081b9f93f6879840519656af94bdf5cc8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 31 |
| 2026-04-25 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 27 |
| 2026-05-06 | 28 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 27% probability reflects market participants' assessment that French Prime Minister François Lecornu will be removed from office by a specific date. Lecornu's tenure depends on maintaining government stability and parliamentary support, particularly given France's complex political landscape. The main drivers of this probability are parliamentary confidence votes, coalition dynamics with the National Assembly, and potential policy conflicts with President Macron's administration. Any significant legislative defeat or collapse of the governing coalition would increase removal likelihood, while successful passage of key legislation would reduce it. The upcoming parliamentary session calendar and scheduled confidence procedures represent critical junctures that could resolve uncertainty around his continuation in office. Market pricing suggests meaningful but not overwhelming removal risk within the specified timeframe.

### Key factors

- Parliamentary composition: France's current government coalition stability and the opposition's ability to force confidence votes through constitutional mechanisms
- Recent government performance: Legislative victories or defeats on key bills indicate whether Lecornu retains sufficient parliamentary backing
- Macron's political position: The President's authority to dismiss and replace the PM depends on maintaining his own political capital and coalition support
- Scheduled voting events: Dates of confidence votes, budget debates, or other structured parliamentary procedures where removal could be triggered
- Media reports on coalition friction: Public statements from coalition partners regarding government policy disputes or confidence in Lecornu's leadership

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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