# Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 77%, runner-up 53% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:47.324Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 77%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 53%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $315

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 77¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x796d0b933764a3bc48b0009b04375a6c9c1224a834fa760e6f521695f86e4310 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2651198ee21da63ab9659c2340246270878006e0d2e196e97b422ff660a2772e |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xd79dfebaca45de486c711df7ef97657def0ff910ce0302f037b71716deb6f845 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x069e2b9a3e65104909d365470d3ce07fd6b91dea5136ddd36b172f02fa91e280 |
| O/U 3.5 | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x82156713db504fa2705c1ff9ce5c00f07f9e142ed44f3c47d645161336c577e8 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x45e030f23009132654bc0587068797b39b2abc38de5613ea77ad712c63f5a07f |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x691544e2f6cbc85be5e0a5bf08bd8c7f51c2a8d2b626d6f63dafb62360616208 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x1da10fb00a9e9cf7001b543bdc336af0cd1b788456be443cc5955b3f7f30ed87 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −6pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xeacd4b74856bcd1deffd3d1fa8f946524095752c552907e53b59734bfd8c9c9e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 79 | 56 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 78 | 53 | 50 |
| 2026-05-03 | 76 | 52 | 51 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) −10pp 32→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −5pp 17→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · O/U 2.5 −3pp 56→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) −3pp 15→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 51% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Liaoning Tieren FC will win their match against Chengdu Rongcheng FC. The aggregate market shows meaningful disagreement, with a competing position at 33%, suggesting genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Disparities across linked contracts—such as Chengdu trading at 61¢ for an outright win versus Liaoning at 19¢—indicate traders are pricing different match scenarios and goal-margin outcomes differently. The resolution will occur when the fixture is played, determined by final match result. Recent volume ($327–$390 per contract in 24 hours) suggests active pricing but limited liquidity concentration, meaning individual large positions can influence quoted probabilities.

### Key factors

- Liaoning Tieren FC win contract trading at 19¢ on Polymarket vs. Chengdu win at 61¢ suggests market leans toward Chengdu, contradicting the 51% headline on the Liaoning spread contract
- Volume distribution across contracts ($265–$390 per contract daily) indicates fragmented liquidity; prices may not reflect consensus if one contract has outsized position concentration
- The 51% leader position reflects a specific spread market (Liaoning -2.5); outright win probabilities differ materially, suggesting outcome uncertainty extends to goal margin, not just match winner
- Fixture date and team injury/lineup status at match time will be primary resolution drivers; current probabilities are static snapshots without time-to-event weighting
- Multi-outcome structure means the 51% reflects one specific contract's last-trade price, not an arithmetic average—runner-up at 33% indicates material disagreement on true probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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