# Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC

> Chengdu Rongcheng FC leads at 61%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:29.601Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Chengdu Rongcheng FC at 61%
- Runner-up: Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC) at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $412

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 61¢ | −4pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-chengdu-polymarket-0x6c60acc50474a4a4c0433599ebd0985ed84a4bed0c3c704107cd5ed0c366e575 |
| Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC) | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-draw-li-polymarket-0x096646db8f7006d0da79d4f8c4d8f55be3e78c5a0af9ae49a6b2978a264bef18 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 15¢ | +1pp | $399 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-liaonin-polymarket-0x76793744c55b6f396dfdf0e4eab54c2c1218d025b5f56e00a0f5c6bd834c230b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chengdu Rongcheng FC | Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC) | Liaoning Tieren FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 60 | 24 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 65 | 22 | 16 |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 | 24 | 17 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC −9pp 25→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC +5pp 60→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC −4pp 65→61¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets currently assess Chengdu Rongcheng FC as the favored winner in this matchup, with a 61% implied probability compared to Liaoning Tieren FC's 19%. The pricing reflects differing views across venues: Polymarket's three contracts show wider spreads, while Kalshi's contract suggests somewhat lower confidence in Liaoning. The gap between Chengdu's 61% and Liaoning's 19% leaves 20% probability for a draw or other outcome. Key factors likely driving this assessment include relative team form, home-field advantage, recent head-to-head results, and squad composition changes. The upcoming match date will provide the definitive resolution, making current probabilities vulnerable to injury announcements, pre-match momentum shifts, or betting information flowing into the market closer to kickoff. Contract volumes vary significantly across venues, indicating fragmented liquidity rather than consensus certainty.

### Key factors

- Chengdu Rongcheng FC commanding 61% probability versus Liaoning's 19% suggests market confidence in Chengdu but leaves substantial uncertainty (20% unaccounted for in leader/runner-up)
- Volume concentration on Polymarket's Chengdu contract ($390 24h) dwarfs most other contracts, indicating core market activity centers on this specific outcome
- Wide spread between Liaoning at 19% on Polymarket but only 15% on Kalshi suggests venue-dependent assessment differences or liquidity fragmentation
- Liaoning's -2.5 spread contract trading at only 5¢ implies minimal market conviction that Liaoning wins by multiple goals
- Over/Under 2.5 goals at 52¢ suggests expectation of close, low-scoring play rather than blowout, tempering extreme confidence in either team

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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