# Liga Endesa

> Winner: Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz leads at 49%, runner-up 49% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liga-endesa
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.588Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: La Laguna Tenerife at 49%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-kosner-baskonia-vitoria-gasteiz-polymarket-0xd8d8c081cd7abf9b506b84c1e075fba9f185579738dff8903e0c545847b3f3b3 |
| Winner: La Laguna Tenerife | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-la-laguna-tenerife-polymarket-0x6bdbf58aa0dd8e95954df965c39a73bdc3de7e92dd5ea9cb588710f95e0cc8d0 |
| Winner: Real Madrid | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-real-madrid-polymarket-0xffafb190900ed8f2e2ccdaea1892a66ac287ba70b25e2d98d2ee3ee452718e29 |
| Winner: Unicaja Málaga | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-unicaja-mlaga-polymarket-0x5095b2ab32f5c414c4d7c9748bf9161a5ffc8d6a35c075ace605f338b6ea5262 |
| Winner: Bàsquet Girona | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-bsquet-girona-polymarket-0x75e8b5ee70298b21ef80f3dad96a9bca3e2d082b175fffe2c737094a7e6a4d2b |
| Winner: BAXI Manresa | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-baxi-manresa-polymarket-0x66486b2a838078877387bce604311458bb6ce11a7007ad465193948a93751177 |
| Winner: FC Barcelona | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-fc-barcelona-polymarket-0xc0a906a04e7538c3c936e116798eaa51d49eb8c7f59cb3d477955a23bbf1392e |
| Winner: Surne Bilbao Basket | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-surne-bilbao-basket-polymarket-0xff57730a0d05de8164a14031510be7ac4d71a07ec589b036bae2768f79b4d1a9 |
| Winner: UCAM Murcia | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-ucam-murcia-polymarket-0x12e21025dba8786caeac01ee42c08956c2ef34f03af4ab36384e31b53529ada9 |
| Winner: Joventut Badalona | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-joventut-badalona-polymarket-0x2410f0b1c788426c2e96552789605d8645d57e92f56ed416bd148171c5174eab |
| Winner: Río Breogán | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-ro-breogn-polymarket-0x438c426e1e64d2987a29ae705dbf31c6bfcb156b86719e073dde2bfa44a72a13 |
| Winner: Valencia Basket | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-endesa-winner-valencia-basket-polymarket-0x2236c2e6f8f746217cfbe980d71df7d2a60ffba24a4ad38d58a3cd5e78e83b83 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | Winner: La Laguna Tenerife | Winner: Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 43 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 42 | 42 | 55 |
| 2026-04-30 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 | — | 50 |
| 2026-05-09 | 50 | 50 | 50 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that a specific team wins the Liga Endesa (Spain's top basketball league) championship. Currently, five teams—Casademont Zaragoza, UCAM Murcia, Valencia Basket, Joventut Badalona, and Río Breogán—are priced nearly equally, with each claiming roughly 50% implied probability at the leadership level. The market appears fragmented with minimal trading volume, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about the playoff outcomes or limited liquidity. The outcome will be determined by the Liga Endesa playoffs, which culminate in the finals later in 2026. Changes in this probability would reflect injuries to key players, unexpected playoff performances, or shifts in market participants' assessments of team strength. The resolution occurs when the championship is awarded and one team is definitively crowned champion.

### Key factors

- Five teams hold nearly identical contract prices (49-50¢), indicating the market perceives a closely competitive field with no clear favorite
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across top contracts suggests sparse market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that don't reflect genuine belief shifts
- Liga Endesa playoff structure (knockout rounds leading to finals) means upsets or injuries to star players could rapidly reprrice expectations
- Regular season standings and head-to-head records through early May 2026 establish baseline competitive rankings that traders would reference
- Championship resolution date is fixed by Liga Endesa's official playoff schedule, creating a definite deadline for market settlement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liga-endesa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=liga-endesa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.