# Liga MX

> Winner: Guadalajara leads at 44%, runner-up 42% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liga-mx
Updated: 2026-05-03T22:35:59.830Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Guadalajara at 44%
- Runner-up: Winner: Pumas UNAM at 42%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $315

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Guadalajara | 44¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-guadalajara-polymarket-0xf20a7810309511c46cb68edbf80a5e566be20a49968f0640edb2870163371731 |
| Winner: Pumas UNAM | 42¢ | +14pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-pumas-unam-polymarket-0x48763eee044da3652a5e4e3185874fbbc97f41ec0b10c1eeff77b355b610380a |
| Winner: Toluca | 35¢ | +13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-toluca-polymarket-0x6c9d1969e11545eaab2ec65bf7e1e32ecafa62c76b1a0db26bd3111b4c9ad017 |
| Winner: Cruz Azul | 34¢ | −19pp | $118 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-cruz-azul-polymarket-0xabb43b06e7395ba64710440c817ba9a0d9f2e060bf79c3b852b758e0c68d0d0a |
| Winner: América | 24¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-amrica-polymarket-0xc08bae1d8f7b57a739eee2821a695eb1b0233d64fd9875aef893796cabc1adbc |
| Winner: Tigres UANL | 23¢ | +9pp | $109 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-tigres-uanl-polymarket-0x36d90d231e379b1fb5356006a579832473112cf671959dbd1aa6f20c65c74a71 |
| Winner: Pachuca | 6¢ | +28pp | $68 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-pachuca-polymarket-0xa29fc1f57266b8610a2ff8586975c4fa201c11bb1ad56545ead6c80012635410 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Guadalajara | Winner: Pumas UNAM | Winner: Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 38 | 37 | 16 |
| 2026-04-26 | 36 | 42 | 20 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 | 37 | 37 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Pachuca +28pp 14→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Winner: Pachuca −26pp 29→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Winner: Pachuca +22pp 3→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Winner: América −22pp 30→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Winner: Cruz Azul −20pp 34→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 46% probability represents the market's assessment that a specific team will win the Liga MX Clausura tournament. The leading contract is trading well above the runner-up at 41%, indicating modest confidence in the frontrunner but substantial uncertainty about the final outcome. Liga MX's Clausura season structure means the probability reflects expectations based on current team performance, head-to-head records, and recent form. The gap between the leader and runner-up suggests the market sees distinguishable differences in team strength but not overwhelming dominance. Key drivers include mid-season injuries, recent match results, and playoff positioning as the tournament progresses. Resolution depends on the Clausura's playoff bracket outcomes, with the final match determining the definitive winner and settling all contracts simultaneously.

### Key factors

- Current team in contention has moderate but non-dominant implied win probability at 46%, with nearest competitor at 41% market price
- Kalshi volume data shows relatively low trading activity ($2056-$4729 per 24h) across top Liga MX-specific contracts, suggesting limited market liquidity or consensus
- Leading contract's price reflects 46% implied probability, not a mean across all outcomes; remaining probability distributed among multiple competitors
- Recent match performance, defensive injuries, and playoff bracket dynamics will materially shift probabilities as tournament progresses toward final stages
- Tournament's specific playoff format (structure and pairings) determines which teams advance, making mid-season positioning less predictive than in round-robin structures

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liga-mx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=liga-mx

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.