# Liga Nacional de Básquetbol

> Winner: Independiente de Oliva leads at 49%, runner-up 49% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:51:00.488Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-16

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Independiente de Oliva at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Instituto de Córdoba at 49%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Independiente de Oliva | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-independiente-de-polymarket-0x9170da37560cfa4e5ec3d5861bcc0f6c495aca0e49b6835684e44edd52dd4726 |
| Winner: Instituto de Córdoba | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-instituto-de-crd-polymarket-0x3d992a4df2220ff90b3001d5f9a8a18fe550ffa6a9eefc7c4f9e038222dae565 |
| Winner: Unión de Santa Fe | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-unin-de-santa-fe-polymarket-0xeacf0fcd739ccf2cf9c76b1c4d974c97ba49b26cac93f50617beb2a2d06f6c9d |
| Winner: Boca Juniors | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-boca-juniors-polymarket-0x431dd5de120d64b53cdc85e7174717522e4c5618f0c463a54c382307f8e1aa35 |
| Winner: La Unión de Formosa | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-la-unin-de-formo-polymarket-0xc2bb5406b0bce9909bc9e27d159d36bb344a49ec3e9f5a0d9fa489102b054dea |
| Winner: Olímpico de La Banda | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-olmpico-de-la-ba-polymarket-0x236ddacdcad4da86fa67021420b63fdaca0a7197e2c08b5eb5e9b744b8d334ef |
| Winner: Peñarol de Mar del Plata | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-pearol-de-mar-de-polymarket-0xa51fd770e94b86d3fdead98c60a197713dbf7d5a8b1bf0272f747a18a327d1ee |
| Winner: Regatas Corrientes | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-regatas-corrient-polymarket-0x9ccdc876f4a6456689fd6143cfcd4da3d2f2331f90a10cdbb87c699a511d1cf0 |
| Winner: San Lorenzo | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-san-lorenzo-polymarket-0x396342deca3403fdf13d4b4721afdfbd2479e4036e7c15c82e7fbe2fac726604 |
| Winner: Ferro Carril Oeste | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-ferro-carril-oes-polymarket-0x14f5c0ef0cbe50d88f742aa8e3eba9c15498dd68ca9459ac83bf918d89416605 |
| Winner: Gimnasia y Esgrima de Comodoro Rivadavia | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-gimnasia-y-esgri-polymarket-0x310d19c17287ab7cea30ff4f6a79a235c03421f7b8fe5b34b6195ab81b407247 |
| Winner: Quimsa de Santiago del Estero | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-quimsa-de-santia-polymarket-0xf7ecdf75677cbe3bceee2c1503e773700a16c299971c72abb7a14fc97f8d11e0 |
| Winner: Racing de Chivilcoy | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-racing-de-chivil-polymarket-0xbf45c73384266b9819638ab5756b06a4db3e2c3b206aa5cfc0dac837fefb4d88 |
| Winner: San Martín de Corrientes | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-san-martn-de-cor-polymarket-0x3eee8775d47473939f1166b0727aee3da5681abfb34e7c718f8c3f21f090d874 |
| Winner: Oberá Tennis Club | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-ober-tennis-club-polymarket-0x7bf48a81ddc01039f99ec94a0b5c1395e75c79f993d884c9f06ffa120ccaa29a |
| Winner: Obras Basket | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-obras-basket-polymarket-0x7656f7672c51e6809e455ebee28036c8edacfbdfb2efba33725a18495c82ba4a |
| Winner: Platense | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-platense-polymarket-0x481c659d2c3d9a4852bedae27789b836c8c0fcb51145e095b68faf4d994cca82 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Independiente de Oliva | Winner: Instituto de Córdoba | Winner: Unión de Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 48 |
| 2026-04-28 | 50 | 50 | 49 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | 50 | 49 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the current market estimate that Boca Juniors will win the Liga Nacional de Básquetbol championship. The 50% price reflects deep uncertainty among traders, likely driven by competitive balance within the league and potentially limited recent performance data or incomplete season context as of May 2026. The championship outcome will be determined by season-end tournament results, with resolution depending on playoff performance and final standings. Key factors include Boca Juniors' current win-loss record relative to competitors, their historical championship frequency, roster changes or injuries affecting performance, head-to-head records against other top contenders, and playoff format structure that might favor certain team profiles.

### Key factors

- Boca Juniors' current position in league standings and recent game outcomes
- Trading volume and contract liquidity across the 17 competing teams—zero volume on most contracts suggests limited new information or market conviction
- Playoff bracket structure and seeding implications that could advantage or disadvantage Boca relative to other contenders
- Roster availability and injury status of key Boca players versus primary competitors
- Historical championship frequency and performance patterns of Boca versus the runner-up team currently priced at 50%

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol

## License

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