# Will Toluca win the Liga MX Clausura

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 8 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligamx
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:56.052Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America | 10¢ | +3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-america-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-america-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-ame |
| Guadalajara | 5¢ | −7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-guadalajara-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-guadalaj-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-cdg |
| Tigres | 26¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tigres-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-tigres-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-tig |
| Pumas UNAM | 13¢ | −11pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-pumas-unam-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-pumas-una-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-pum |
| Cruz Azul | 3¢ | −6pp | $856 | kalshi | /markets/will-cruz-azul-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-cruz-azul-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-cra |
| Toluca | 13¢ | ±0 | $791 | kalshi | /markets/will-toluca-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-toluca-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-tol |
| Monterrey | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-monterrey-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-monterrey-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-mon |
| Leon | 10¢ | −20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-leon-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-leon-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-leo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 12 |
| 2026-04-19 | 10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 19 |
| 2026-05-03 | 12 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Leon +68pp 2→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Leon −40pp 70→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Leon −20pp 30→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Pumas UNAM −11pp 20→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Toluca +11pp 5→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 12% probability indicates that Toluca has roughly a one-in-eight chance of winning the Liga MX Clausura tournament. The market prices Toluca slightly ahead of mid-table contenders like Pumas UNAM but well behind favorites like America (15%). Toluca's probability reflects its historical performance, current squad composition, and position in the league standings at the time of assessment. The main drivers of this estimate are the team's consistency relative to stronger-resourced clubs and any recent injuries or tactical changes. The tournament's group stage and knockout structure will progressively reduce uncertainty as matches are played and teams' form becomes clearer. If Toluca wins crucial early matches or top-favored teams stumble, the probability could shift meaningfully. Conversely, early losses would likely push it lower as elimination becomes more probable.

### Key factors

- Toluca's current league position and points total relative to title-contending teams as of early May 2026
- Recent match results and win-loss record compared to America, Pachuca, and other favored competitors
- Injuries or suspensions affecting Toluca's key players versus the strength of their available squad
- Playoff structure mechanics and bracket positioning that determines path to final
- Head-to-head historical win rates and goal differential between Toluca and top contenders in similar tournaments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligamx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligamx

## License

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