# Will the final score be Draw 1-1

> Draw 1-1 leads at 11%, runner-up 10% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligamxscore
Updated: 2026-07-26T10:20:50.348Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-10

## Headline

- Leader: Draw 1-1 at 11%
- Runner-up: CF Monterrey wins 2-1 at 10%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw 1-1 | 11¢ | +2pp | $324 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-draw-1-1-draw-1-1-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx1mon1 |
| CF Monterrey wins 2-1 | 10¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-monterrey-wins-2-1-cf-m-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx1mon2 |
| CF Pachuca wins 2-1 | 10¢ | +2pp | $971 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-pachuca-wins-2-1-cf-pac-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac2que1 |
| CF Pachuca wins 2-0 | 10¢ | +2pp | $846 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-pachuca-wins-2-0-cf-pac-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac2que0 |
| CF Pachuca wins 1-0 | 10¢ | +1pp | $297 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-pachuca-wins-1-0-cf-pac-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac1que0 |
| CF Monterrey wins 1-0 | 8¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-monterrey-wins-1-0-cf-m-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx0mon1 |
| Club Necaxa wins 2-1 | 7¢ | +1pp | $336 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-club-necaxa-wins-2-1-club-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx2mon1 |
| CF Pachuca wins 3-0 | 7¢ | −1pp | $283 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-pachuca-wins-3-0-cf-pac-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac3que0 |
| CF Pachuca wins 4-2 | 6¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-pachuca-wins-4-2-cf-pac-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac4que2 |
| Draw 2-2 | 6¢ | +2pp | $853 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-draw-2-2-draw-2-2-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx2mon2 |
| Club Necaxa wins 1-0 | 5¢ | +2pp | $821 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-club-necaxa-wins-1-0-club-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx1mon0 |
| Draw 0-0 | 5¢ | +3pp | $621 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-draw-0-0-draw-0-0-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac0que0 |
| Draw 0-0 | 4¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-draw-0-0-draw-0-0-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx0mon0 |
| CF Monterrey wins 2-0 | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-monterrey-wins-2-0-cf-m-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx0mon2 |
| CF Monterrey wins 3-1 | 4¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-monterrey-wins-3-1-cf-m-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx1mon3 |
| CF Monterrey wins 3-0 | 4¢ | +2pp | $697 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-monterrey-wins-3-0-cf-m-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx0mon3 |
| Queretaro FC wins 1-0 | 4¢ | ±0 | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-queretaro-fc-wins-1-0-quer-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac0que1 |
| Draw 2-2 | 4¢ | ±0 | $162 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-draw-2-2-draw-2-2-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26pacque-pac2que2 |
| Club Necaxa wins 3-1 | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-club-necaxa-wins-3-1-club-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx3mon1 |
| CF Monterrey wins 3-2 | 3¢ | +2pp | $677 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-final-score-be-cf-monterrey-wins-3-2-cf-m-kalshi-kxligamxscore-26jul26ncxmon-ncx2mon3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Draw 1-1 | CF Monterrey wins 2-1 | CF Pachuca wins 2-1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| 2026-07-20 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | 11 | 9 | 10 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · Draw 0-0 +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Draw 0-0 −5pp 8→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · CF Monterrey wins 2-1 +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · CF Monterrey wins 2-0 −3pp 5→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Draw 2-2 −3pp 5→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 1-1 draw in this CF Cruz Azul match is currently priced at 5% on Kalshi, indicating markets view it as an unlikely outcome. The probability reflects expectations about both teams' attacking and defensive capabilities, with Cruz Azul favored across multiple winning scorelines (2-0 at 8%, 1-0 at 6%, 2-1 at 6%). The draw probability could move higher if team lineups suggest defensive football or if recent form indicates reduced offensive output from both sides. Conversely, it could decline if injury news removes key defensive players. The match outcome will be determined on its scheduled date, resolving all uncertainty once final whistle occurs. Current pricing suggests market participants expect either a Cruz Azul victory or a more unusual scoreline than parity.

### Key factors

- Cruz Azul appears favored across most winning scenarios (multiple contracts above 5%), suggesting asymmetric attacking capability relative to opponent
- A 1-1 draw carries only 5% probability despite being one of three scorelines in a typical small-outcome set, indicating low expectations for balanced goal output
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the 24-hour period suggests limited recent market conviction or activity in this specific match
- Teams' recent defensive and offensive efficiency metrics, lineup availability, and head-to-head history would determine realistic scoring likelihood
- Match kickoff date and team injury reports closer to kickoff will be critical catalysts for probability movement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligamxscore
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligamxscore

## License

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