# Necaxa wins by over 1.5 goals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 7 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligamxspread
Updated: 2026-05-03T22:35:55.283Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM wins by over 1.5 goals | 10¢ | +5pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/pumas-unam-wins-by-over-15-goals-pumas-unam-wins-b-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03amepum-pum1 |
| Pumas UNAM wins by over 2.5 goals | 3¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/pumas-unam-wins-by-over-25-goals-pumas-unam-wins-b-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03amepum-pum2 |
| America wins by over 1.5 goals | 21¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/america-wins-by-over-15-goals-america-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03amepum-ame1 |
| Toluca wins by over 1.5 goals | 29¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/toluca-wins-by-over-15-goals-toluca-wins-by-over-1-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03tolpac-tol1 |
| Pachuca wins by over 1.5 goals | 7¢ | +1pp | $527 | kalshi | /markets/pachuca-wins-by-over-15-goals-pachuca-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03tolpac-pac1 |
| Toluca wins by over 2.5 goals | 13¢ | ±0 | $201 | kalshi | /markets/toluca-wins-by-over-25-goals-toluca-wins-by-over-2-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03tolpac-tol2 |
| America wins by over 2.5 goals | 7¢ | +6pp | $115 | kalshi | /markets/america-wins-by-over-25-goals-america-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03amepum-ame2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 8 |
| 2026-05-01 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |
| 2026-05-03 | 11 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · America wins by over 2.5 goals +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Pumas UNAM wins by over 1.5 goals +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · America wins by over 1.5 goals −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligamxspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligamxspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.