# Will Sporting Lisbon win the Liga Portugal

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligaportugal
Updated: 2026-05-05T18:50:36.705Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL Benfica | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sl-benfica-win-the-liga-portugal-sl-benfica-kalshi-kxligaportugal-26-ben |
| Nacional da Madeira | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nacional-da-madeira-win-the-liga-portugal-nac-kalshi-kxligaportugal-26-cdn |
| Moreirense FC | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-moreirense-fc-win-the-liga-portugal-moreirens-kalshi-kxligaportugal-26-mor |
| Rio Ave FC | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rio-ave-fc-win-the-liga-portugal-rio-ave-fc-kalshi-kxligaportugal-26-rav |
| FC Arouca | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fc-arouca-win-the-liga-portugal-fc-arouca-kalshi-kxligaportugal-26-aro |
| Estrela Amadora | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-estrela-amadora-win-the-liga-portugal-estrela-kalshi-kxligaportugal-26-esa |
| AVS Futebol SAD | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-avs-futebol-sad-win-the-liga-portugal-avs-fut-kalshi-kxligaportugal-26-avs |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 2 |
| 2026-04-20 | 6 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 27% probability indicates markets assess Sporting Lisbon as a meaningful but not favored contender to win the 2025-26 Liga Portugal season. The assessment reflects Sporting's recent performance relative to established rivals, particularly Benfica and Porto, which typically command larger market shares in Portuguese football. Key factors maintaining this mid-range probability include Sporting's squad depth, managerial stability, and injury status entering the final stretch of the season. The probability could shift substantially based on head-to-head results against top competitors in remaining matches and the transfer activity during any upcoming windows. The most concrete catalyst would be Sporting's performance over the next 4-6 weeks of league fixtures, which will clarify their trajectory relative to current leaders and establish whether they can realistically close any point gap before the season concludes.

### Key factors

- Current points tally and goal differential compared to Benfica and Porto as of early May 2026
- Sporting's historical win rate in direct matchups against the top two competitors this season
- Availability and fitness status of key players, particularly in attack and midfield, for remaining fixtures
- Remaining fixture difficulty—schedule strength compared to competing clubs still in contention
- Kalshi market volume and contract pricing stability, indicating confidence or uncertainty in the 27% assessment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligaportugal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligaportugal

## License

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