# Ligue 1: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)

> 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Auxerre leads at 56%, runner-up 44% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1-16th-place-relegation-survivor
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:05:29.150Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Auxerre at 56%
- Runner-up: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice at 44%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $516

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Auxerre | 56¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-16th-place-relegation-survivor-auxerre-polymarket-0xc7226abcf9d39c633e67a081f825aee5fd7456db658e988cfe6ec2d84d64328c |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-16th-place-relegation-survivor-nice-polymarket-0x87bc1cbedc165ce2ad23a92318718370b97c56b86032b39d7928907ab0f1797f |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Le Havre | 43¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-16th-place-relegation-survivor-le-havre-polymarket-0x8e682a20ae6d38c85ab6b95f5d65a616287312e5abaca0085eb357173fcd42cd |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nantes | 9¢ | ±0 | $516 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-16th-place-relegation-survivor-nantes-polymarket-0x52fcf537db9745319d484c6fc18ddbafeb5a78d572c762897d69a0f44316d801 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Auxerre | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 52 | 47 | 46 |
| 2026-05-02 | 54 | 45 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 53 | 42 | 42 |
| 2026-05-09 | 56 | 47 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice −3pp 45→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice +3pp 42→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Le Havre −3pp 45→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a specific Ligue 1 team will finish 16th and survive relegation in the 2025-26 season. The 54% probability for the leading contract suggests moderate confidence in one particular team's survival, with a runner-up at 49% indicating meaningful uncertainty about which team will claim that spot. Relegation outcomes depend on accumulated points through the season's final matches, typically decided in May. Teams currently competing for 16th place face variable fixtures, injury pressures, and managerial decisions in the closing weeks. The market price reflects both historical performance data and real-time assessment of each team's goal differential, recent form, and remaining schedule. As the season progresses toward conclusion, contract prices will adjust based on actual match results and point totals, with the outcome determined by official final standings.

### Key factors

- Actual point differential between the leading contract's team and competing teams in the relegation zone as of early May 2026
- Remaining fixture difficulty: strength of schedule for teams fighting 16th place over final matchdays
- Recent form trends: win-loss records and goal-scoring efficiency for frontrunner versus rivals in last 5-10 matches
- Head-to-head results and goal differential in direct matches between the leading contract's team and nearest competitors for 16th
- Injury status and suspension availability of key players for the frontrunner team during final matches

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1-16th-place-relegation-survivor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligue-1-16th-place-relegation-survivor

## License

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