# Ligue 1: 2nd Place Finish

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 5 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1-2nd-place-finish
Updated: 2026-05-08T22:35:14.105Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd Place Finish: Lyon | 4¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-2nd-place-finish-lyon-polymarket-0xd0dff5366e78450f7337f8c155ff80d5c4b5a91ef894fe5fa1d55962bf5c3b1a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 26 |
| 2026-04-25 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · 2nd Place Finish: Lyon −15pp 15→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2nd Place Finish: Lyon +10pp 1→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · 2nd Place Finish: Lyon −7pp 11→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects an expectation that a specific outcome will occur with 97% confidence, based on aggregated market pricing. The high probability suggests strong consensus among traders, though the underlying contracts span diverse categories—from English football league standings to international elections—indicating this is a bundle of related positions rather than a single event. Movement in this probability would depend on shifts in any of the component contracts, with the most liquid positions (Arsenal vs. Manchester City for 2nd place in the Premier League) likely driving overall changes. Key catalysts include final match days for respective competitions and official election results as scheduled dates arrive. Traders monitoring this contract should track the individual components separately, as movement in lower-volume contracts can create outsize price swings in the aggregate.

### Key factors

- The Premier League 2nd-place contracts (Arsenal 39¢, Man City 61¢) represent the highest trading volume at $6,868 combined 24h volume and will likely determine aggregate price direction
- Peruvian presidential election (Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 95¢) and Brazilian election contracts carry much lower liquidity ($2,123 and $881 respectively), making them more susceptible to large percentage moves from smaller trades
- The multi-outcome structure means this 97% probability reflects the leader's price across all bundled contracts, not a simple average, so a single component rallying does not proportionally shift the headline
- Resolution depends on official final results from geographically and temporally dispersed events (Premier League season end, Peru election first round, Brazil election first round, Georgia GOP primary)
- Significant divergence between individual contract prices (Arsenal-City near 50-50 vs. Sánchez Palomino near certainty) suggests heterogeneous market confidence across different prediction categories

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1-2nd-place-finish
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligue-1-2nd-place-finish

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.