# Ligue 1 - Top Goalscorer

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 96% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1-top-goalscorer
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.257Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $174

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul | 96¢ | +4pp | $174 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-top-goalscorer-esteban-lepaul-polymarket-0xec1254e7ce833a8d75773d42d126f62a32fa986cae4c75bc3959ba13b3233eb1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 |
| 2026-04-25 | 62 |
| 2026-05-02 | 83 |
| 2026-05-08 | 94 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul +12pp 81→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul +4pp 90→94¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul −3pp 93→90¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market confidence that Esteban Lepaul will finish the 2026 Ligue 1 season as the league's top goalscorer. At 81%, the market is pricing this as a strong lean toward Lepaul, with the second-place contender at 10%. The current level likely reflects Lepaul's recent scoring form and goal tally relative to competitors mid-season. The main drivers pushing the probability up or down would be injury status, playing time consistency, and whether competing forwards maintain or accelerate their own goal-scoring pace through the remaining fixtures. The resolution will occur at the end of the 2026 Ligue 1 season, when final statistics determine who accumulated the most goals across all matches. Trading activity and price movement may intensify as the season approaches its conclusion and injury or performance developments become clearer.

### Key factors

- Lepaul's current goal tally and rate compared to the runner-up; a significant drop in his scoring or injury would pressure the probability downward
- Playing time and minutes availability for Lepaul versus competing forwards, particularly if rotation or tactical changes limit his opportunities
- Performance trajectory of the runner-up (currently 10%) and whether that player or other competitors gain ground through consistent scoring
- Match scheduling and fixture difficulty in remaining Ligue 1 games, which can affect scoring opportunities for all contenders
- Historical volatility of the top-goalscorer race at this stage of the season and whether the market view has typically shifted significantly by final matchday

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1-top-goalscorer
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligue-1-top-goalscorer

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.