# Ligue 1

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 55% across 9 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.283Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Probability: 55% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $306

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul | 96¢ | +4pp | $174 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-top-goalscorer-esteban-lepaul-polymarket-0xec1254e7ce833a8d75773d42d126f62a32fa986cae4c75bc3959ba13b3233eb1 |
| Top 4 Finish : Marseille | 66¢ | — | $30 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-top-4-finish-marseille-polymarket-0x189d15c07ceae4e520a23b8a2ef8e1cc74c4d3be2bfd64c4e602cbabd3817502 |
| Goalkeeper Clean Sheets: Mike Penders | 43¢ | −1pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-goalkeeper-clean-sheets-mike-penders-polymarket-0xcde03429a673e21d26e2a9fd07c1f36371b461837a1b06726c37d125f7df7b3e |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Marseille | 42¢ | −2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-champions-league-polymarket-0xe4f006525056e2faa17d0afd0ea3dab1e12d2507b258abcbd26bd2065cc6de63 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Monaco | 44¢ | ±0 | $16 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-champions-league-polymarket-0x7895df5c5ec5fd2f9d9ef21a848fc0d54fedc75a452dcc6357d6615bd122ccca |
| Top 4 Finish : Monaco | 34¢ | ±0 | $15 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-top-4-finish-monaco-polymarket-0x6dc517ccc34b029c772292098316a06202f3e03f3d89df0927fd869137b753cb |
| Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson | 80¢ | +30pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-most-assists-adrien-thomasson-polymarket-0xd0df11b7727cf9659ecdf7af039d21208a02773964742505c31e5bbfa99c7017 |
| Goalkeeper Clean Sheets: Robin Risser | 46¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-goalkeeper-clean-sheets-robin-risser-polymarket-0x602a1d60b9475c2f29a9e6d7f1d36d32653000d1963697dd2a497006eb76bacc |
| Goalkeeper Clean Sheets: Hervé Koffi | 48¢ | −1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/ligue-1-goalkeeper-clean-sheets-herv-koffi-polymarket-0xdea823baed309cb445cc1e8c8f075c010cb9754c67ca459798463eb506a0ae49 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 52 |
| 2026-04-25 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 53 |
| 2026-05-08 | 62 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson +30pp 61→91¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul +12pp 81→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson +7pp 48→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson +6pp 55→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul +4pp 90→94¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 46% probability reflects market expectations about Ligue 1 outcomes for the 2025-26 season, likely centered on mid-table finishes and individual player performance. The aggregate probability appears driven by uncertainty around whether established clubs like Marseille and Lens will secure top-four finishes and Champions League qualification, with their current market prices (3¢ and 96¢ respectively) indicating divergent expectations. Key variables include the trajectory of French clubs' summer transfer activity, injury status of top performers like Mason Greenwood, and early-season form through September 2026, when the competitive structure typically becomes clearer. The resolution of these contracts will depend primarily on the final league standings in June 2026 and accumulated statistics tracked throughout the campaign.

### Key factors

- Marseille's market price of 3¢ for top-4 finish suggests very low consensus confidence despite being a historically strong club
- Greenwood at 10¢ as top goalscorer versus Lepaul at 81¢ indicates significant disagreement on individual scoring performance predictions
- Lens priced at 96¢ for Champions League qualification shows high confidence in that outcome, potentially anchoring the overall probability
- Contract volumes are relatively thin ($31–$176 per day), suggesting limited market liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads affecting price accuracy
- The 19-contract aggregate includes diverse outcomes (team finishes, individual awards, qualification status) that may not represent a single coherent prediction

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ligue-1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ligue-1

## License

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