# Will Boaz Bismuth win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 13 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/likudprimary
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.855Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-17

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $266

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tally Gotliv | 10¢ | +3pp | $229 | kalshi | /markets/will-tally-gotliv-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-gett-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-tgot |
| Yariv Levin | 17¢ | −1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-yariv-levin-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-gette-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-ylev |
| Amir Ohana | 36¢ | −7pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-amir-ohana-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-getter-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-aoha |
| Amichai Chikli | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amichai-chikli-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-ge-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-achi |
| Boaz Bismuth | 4¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boaz-bismuth-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-gett-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-bbis |
| David Amsalem | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-amsalem-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-get-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-dams |
| Eli Cohen | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eli-cohen-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-getter-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-ecoh |
| Gila Gamliel | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gila-gamliel-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-gett-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-ggam |
| Israel Katz | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-katz-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-gette-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-ikat |
| Miri Regev | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miri-regev-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-getter-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-mreg |
| Moshe Saada | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-moshe-saada-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-gette-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-msaa |
| Nir Barkat | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nir-barkat-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-getter-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-nbar |
| Ofir Katz | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ofir-katz-win-the-top-nationwide-vote-getter-kalshi-kxlikudprimary-26aug17-okat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | 21 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Amir Ohana +8pp 29→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Amir Ohana −7pp 43→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Amir Ohana +5pp 37→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Tally Gotliv +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Yariv Levin −3pp 21→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects the likelihood that Boaz Bismuth will receive the most votes in the Likud party primary determining the top position on its 2026 Knesset candidate list. At 7%, it positions Bismuth as a minor contender compared to frontrunners Amir Ohana (28%) and Yariv Levin (23%). The relatively low probability likely reflects Bismuth's current standing within Likud's internal political hierarchy and public visibility among party members. The primary outcome will depend on how Bismuth's profile and support evolve relative to established rivals, and whether any political developments shift the preferences of Likud voters. The actual primary election will definitively resolve this question by revealing the nationwide vote distribution among candidates.

### Key factors

- Amir Ohana and Yariv Levin command 51% combined probability, suggesting they are the primary contenders with established positions in the party leadership
- Boaz Bismuth's 7% probability indicates limited current support relative to the frontrunners, based on available polling or member sentiment data
- The remaining probability dispersed among other candidates (Karhi 3%, Chikli 3%, others) suggests limited competition outside the top tier
- Low trading volume on Bismuth's contract ($0 in 24-hour volume) indicates sparse market interest and potentially limited information flowing to traders about his candidacy
- The primary election date and any interim developments in Likud politics or changes in candidate positioning could significantly shift probabilities between now and the vote

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/likudprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=likudprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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