# Will Carlos Bruce win the 2026 Lima mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 6 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/limamayor
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:52.552Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $600

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Bruce | 35¢ | +4pp | $600 | kalshi | /markets/will-carlos-bruce-win-the-2026-lima-mayoral-electi-kalshi-kxlimamayor-26oct04-cbru |
| Daniel Urresti | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-urresti-win-the-2026-lima-mayoral-elec-kalshi-kxlimamayor-26oct04-durr |
| Francis Allison | 18¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-francis-allison-win-the-2026-lima-mayoral-ele-kalshi-kxlimamayor-26oct04-fall |
| Rafael López Aliaga | 21¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rafael-lpez-aliaga-win-the-2026-lima-mayoral-kalshi-kxlimamayor-26oct04-rali |
| Samuel Daza | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-samuel-daza-win-the-2026-lima-mayoral-electio-kalshi-kxlimamayor-26oct04-sdaz |
| Susel Paredes | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-susel-paredes-win-the-2026-lima-mayoral-elect-kalshi-kxlimamayor-26oct04-spar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | 26 |
| 2026-08-24 | 33 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Rafael López Aliaga +11pp 11→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Carlos Bruce +5pp 21→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Rafael López Aliaga +5pp 5→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Carlos Bruce +4pp 29→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Daniel Urresti −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents market participants' assessment that Carlos Bruce has a 10% chance of winning the Lima mayoral election in 2026. The prediction reflects a crowded field where multiple candidates hold similar probabilities: Francis Allison and Carlos Bruce are each priced at 14 cents, Daniel Urresti at 13 cents, while Yehude Simon and Alberto Tejada trade lower at 6 cents. Bruce's position suggests moderate viability but faces significant competition. The probability could shift based on candidate campaign performance, endorsements, polling data, and Peru's shifting political dynamics. The election itself will resolve this market by determining the actual winner among the declared candidates. Current low trading volumes across all contracts indicate limited recent market activity around this race.

### Key factors

- Five candidates cluster between 6-14 cents, indicating substantial uncertainty and no clear frontrunner in market pricing
- Bruce is priced identically (14 cents) to Francis Allison and only 1 cent above Daniel Urresti, suggesting marginal differentiation among top contenders
- Yehude Simon, a former prime minister, trades at only 6 cents despite prior political experience, indicating either market skepticism about his candidacy or preference for other candidates
- Trading volume is minimal or zero across all Lima mayoral contracts, suggesting limited information flow and analyst engagement with this specific race
- The 2026 Lima election occurs in Peru's volatile political environment where recent mayoral races have produced variable outcomes and shifting voter preferences

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/limamayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=limamayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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