# Will Angelista and Aidan win Love Island UK Season 13

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 13 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liukcouple
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.819Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie and Finley | 7¢ | −11pp | $527 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-and-finley-win-love-island-uk-season-13-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-elfi |
| Lola and Sean | 14¢ | ±0 | $323 | kalshi | /markets/will-lola-and-sean-win-love-island-uk-season-13-lo-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-lose |
| Jasmine and Lorenzo | 16¢ | +9pp | $182 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasmine-and-lorenzo-win-love-island-uk-season-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-jalo |
| Jasmine and Kavan | 6¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasmine-and-kavan-win-love-island-uk-season-1-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-jaka |
| Angelista and Chidi | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-chidi-win-love-island-uk-season-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-anch |
| Angelista and Finley | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-finley-win-love-island-uk-seaso-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-anfi |
| Angelista and Kavan | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-kavan-win-love-island-uk-season-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-anka |
| Angelista and Ope | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-ope-win-love-island-uk-season-1-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-anop |
| Angelista and Simba | 13¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-simba-win-love-island-uk-season-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-ansi |
| Angelista and Tommy | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-tommy-win-love-island-uk-season-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-anto |
| Ellie and Chidi | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-and-chidi-win-love-island-uk-season-13-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-elch |
| Ellie and George | 27¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-and-george-win-love-island-uk-season-13-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-elge |
| Ellie and Kavan | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-and-kavan-win-love-island-uk-season-13-kalshi-kxliukcouple-26aug31-elka |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | 15 |
| 2026-06-19 | 9 |
| 2026-06-25 | 13 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Angelista and Simba +25pp 4→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Ellie and George +20pp 7→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Angelista and Simba −16pp 29→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Ellie and Finley −11pp 12→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Angelista and Simba −11pp 13→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Angelista and Aidan finish Love Island UK Season 13 as the winning couple and are selected by the public vote. At 6%, this reflects a relatively low probability among the show's contestants, suggesting either they have recently entered the villa, faced elimination risk, or experienced relationship instability compared to other pairings. The main drivers of this probability are viewer engagement patterns and betting market sentiment tied to contestant narrative arcs—couples with dramatic storylines or strong audience connection typically command higher odds. The probability will shift substantially as the show progresses toward its finale, when the public voting mechanism becomes the decisive factor. Key milestones include coupling ceremonies (which can separate or reunite pairs) and dramatic villa developments that shift audience favorability. The resolution occurs at the finale when voting results are announced and the winning couple is declared.

### Key factors

- Angelista and Aidan's current coupling status and whether they remain together through successive coupling ceremonies
- Comparative betting odds for other couples suggest market participants view multiple pairings as more likely winners, indicating relative weakness in this couple's narrative positioning
- Public sentiment and social media engagement levels for this specific pairing versus competitors, which historically correlates with voting outcomes
- Whether either contestant has experienced elimination threats, re-coupling disruptions, or audience backlash that could affect their survival to the finale
- The remaining number of episodes until the finale and typical timing of major villa events that reshape couple dynamics and viewer perception

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liukcouple
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=liukcouple

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.