# Will Samraj win Love Island UK Season 13

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 14 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liukwinners
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.620Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan | 6¢ | −2pp | $516 | kalshi | /markets/will-aidan-win-love-island-uk-season-13-aidan-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-aid |
| Ellie | 37¢ | +6pp | $370 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-win-love-island-uk-season-13-ellie-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-ell |
| Priya | 8¢ | ±0 | $292 | kalshi | /markets/will-priya-win-love-island-uk-season-13-priya-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-pri |
| Sean | 16¢ | −4pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-win-love-island-uk-season-13-sean-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-sea |
| Lola | 16¢ | −6pp | $89 | kalshi | /markets/will-lola-win-love-island-uk-season-13-lola-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-lol |
| Mica | 8¢ | +2pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-mica-win-love-island-uk-season-13-mica-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-mic |
| Jasmine | 19¢ | ±0 | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasmine-win-love-island-uk-season-13-jasmine-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-jas |
| Lorenzo | 19¢ | +6pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-lorenzo-win-love-island-uk-season-13-lorenzo-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-lor |
| Kavan | 14¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-kavan-win-love-island-uk-season-13-kavan-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-kav |
| Tina | 3¢ | −19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tina-win-love-island-uk-season-13-tina-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-tin |
| Angelista | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-win-love-island-uk-season-13-angeli-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-ang |
| Finley | 24¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-finley-win-love-island-uk-season-13-finley-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-fin |
| Robyn | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robyn-win-love-island-uk-season-13-robyn-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-rob |
| Samraj | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-samraj-win-love-island-uk-season-13-samraj-kalshi-kxliukwinners-26-samr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 8 |
| 2026-06-19 | 11 |
| 2026-06-25 | 16 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Tina −19pp 22→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Kavan +16pp 8→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Finley +15pp 4→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Ellie −13pp 30→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Sean −13pp 30→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Samraj is priced at a 14% chance of winning Love Island UK Season 13, meaning market participants assess a roughly 1-in-7 probability he finishes as the winning couple. This probability reflects early-season positioning among a competitive field where frontrunners like Ellie (23¢), Angelista (18¢), and Robyn (20¢) command higher odds. Samraj's position suggests he faces stronger competition or market participants perceive lower romantic compatibility or viewer support relative to leading contenders. The probability would shift based on viewer voting patterns, on-screen relationship development, coupling dynamics, and public sentiment expressed through betting activity. Resolution occurs when the season finale airs and a winner is crowned—the timing determines whether current odds reflect informed early positioning or outdated information.

### Key factors

- Samraj's current odds rank behind at least three other contestants, indicating market consensus views him as a secondary contender rather than a favorite
- The 14% probability implies roughly 86% of market likelihood is distributed among other contestants, suggesting relatively concentrated backing for specific alternatives
- Trading volume on Samraj contracts relative to frontrunners would indicate whether low odds reflect genuine low expected value or thin liquidity
- Coupling decisions and viewer voting patterns during broadcast episodes directly influence odds movements and resolve uncertainty
- Samraj's price positioning relative to Ope (14¢) and Aidan (13¢) shows tight clustering among mid-tier contestants, suggesting marginal differentiation in market assessment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/liukwinners
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=liukwinners

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.