# Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livr1lead
Updated: 2026-05-08T18:50:15.207Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson DeChambeau | 4¢ | +1pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-bryson-dechambeau-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-bdec |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 7¢ | +4pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-tyrrell-hatton-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-that |
| Jose Luis Ballester | 3¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-jose-luis-ballester-lead-at-the-end-of-round-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-jbal |
| Thomas Detry | 4¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-thomas-detry-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-tdet |
| David Puig | 6¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-david-puig-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-the-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-dpui |
| Ian Poulter | 89¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ian-poulter-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-the-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-ipou |
| Joaquin Niemann | 5¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-joaquin-niemann-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-jnie |
| Anthony Kim | 48¢ | +25pp | $911 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-kim-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-the-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-akim |
| Dustin Johnson | 3¢ | — | $794 | kalshi | /markets/will-dustin-johnson-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-djoh |
| Carlos Ortiz | 89¢ | +44pp | $588 | kalshi | /markets/will-carlos-ortiz-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-cort |
| Branden Grace | 3¢ | — | $578 | kalshi | /markets/will-branden-grace-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-t-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-bgra |
| Jason Kokrak | 3¢ | — | $554 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-kokrak-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-jkok |
| Abraham Ancer | 3¢ | — | $312 | kalshi | /markets/will-abraham-ancer-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-t-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-aanc |
| Dean Burmester | 3¢ | — | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-dean-burmester-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-dbur |
| Tom McKibbin | 3¢ | — | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-mckibbin-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxlivr1lead-ligv26-tmck |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 2 |
| 2026-05-07 | 20 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Carlos Ortiz +44pp 2→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Anthony Kim +25pp 1→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Tyrrell Hatton +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that Bryson DeChambeau will hold the outright lead after 18 holes at the LIV Golf Virginia event. At 5%, the market is assigning him relatively low odds compared to some competitors like Jose Luis Ballester (4%) but in line with other established players. DeChambeau's odds are shaped primarily by his recent form and historical performance in first-round scoring. The contract remains low-volume ($113 in 24-hour trading), suggesting limited conviction either way. The event's Round 1 completion will definitively resolve this contract once final leaderboard standings are posted.

### Key factors

- DeChambeau's scoring performance in recent LIV events and round-one specific statistics
- Field strength and number of players within striking distance after 18 holes at this particular course
- Course conditions and weather on the tournament's opening day
- Market concentration on Jose Luis Ballester at 4¢ indicates probabilistic clustering around a narrow leader pool
- Trading volume of $113 in 24 hours reflects sparse liquidity, suggesting limited analytical attention or consensus on this specific outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livr1lead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=livr1lead

## License

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