# LIV Golf Virginia

> Will Lucas Herbert finish top 10?: Lucas Herbert leads at 85%, runner-up 63% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livtop10
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.387Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Will Lucas Herbert finish top 10?: Lucas Herbert at 85%
- Runner-up: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?: Jon Rahm at 63%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $369

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lucas Herbert finish top 10?: Lucas Herbert | 85¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-lucas-herbert-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-lher |
| Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?: Jon Rahm | 63¢ | +24pp | $106 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-jon-rahm-finish-top-10-jon-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-jrah |
| Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?: Bryson DeChambeau | 58¢ | +4pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-bryson-dechambeau-finish-to-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-bdec |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?: Tyrrell Hatton | 40¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-tyrrell-hatton-finish-top-1-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-that |
| Will Marc Leishman finish top 10?: Marc Leishman | 33¢ | — | $13 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-marc-leishman-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-mlei |
| Will Thomas Detry finish top 10?: Thomas Detry | 22¢ | +15pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-thomas-detry-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-tdet |
| Will Scott Vincent finish top 10?: Scott Vincent | 19¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-scott-vincent-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-svin |
| Will Thomas Pieters finish top 10?: Thomas Pieters | 17¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-thomas-pieters-finish-top-1-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-tpie |
| Will Charles Howell III finish top 10?: Charles Howell III | 8¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-charles-howell-iii-finish-t-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-chow |
| Will Ben Campbell finish top 10?: Ben Campbell | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-ben-campbell-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-bcam |
| Will Sergio Garcia finish top 10?: Sergio Garcia | 6¢ | +32pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-sergio-garcia-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-sgar |
| Will David Puig finish top 10?: David Puig | 6¢ | +16pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-david-puig-finish-top-10-da-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-dpui |
| Will Graeme McDowell finish top 10?: Graeme McDowell | 6¢ | +10pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-graeme-mcdowell-finish-top-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-gmcd |
| Will Dean Burmester finish top 10?: Dean Burmester | 6¢ | +22pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-dean-burmester-finish-top-1-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-dbur |
| Will Cameron Tringale finish top 10?: Cameron Tringale | 5¢ | −18pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-cameron-tringale-finish-top-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-ctri |
| Will Abraham Ancer finish top 10?: Abraham Ancer | 5¢ | −16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-abraham-ancer-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-aanc |
| Will Paul Casey finish top 10?: Paul Casey | 5¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-paul-casey-finish-top-10-pa-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-pcas |
| Will Talor Gooch finish top 10?: Talor Gooch | 5¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-talor-gooch-finish-top-10-t-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-tgoo |
| Will Branden Grace finish top 10?: Branden Grace | 5¢ | −16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-branden-grace-finish-top-10-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-bgra |
| Will Anthony Kim finish top 10?: Anthony Kim | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-anthony-kim-finish-top-10-a-kalshi-kxlivtop10-ligv26-akim |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will Lucas Herbert finish top 10?: Lucas Herbert | Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?: Jon Rahm | Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?: Bryson DeChambeau |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | — | — | 48 |
| 2026-05-07 | 25 | 43 | 49 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 67 | 53 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Will Sergio Garcia finish top 10?: Sergio Garcia +32pp 15→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Will Thomas Detry finish top 10?: Thomas Detry −26pp 40→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?: Jon Rahm +24pp 43→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Will Dean Burmester finish top 10?: Dean Burmester +22pp 22→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Will Cameron Tringale finish top 10?: Cameron Tringale −18pp 23→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates the probability that Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 10 at the LIV Golf Virginia event. At 40%, the market prices this outcome as more likely than not, but with substantial uncertainty. Niemann's recent form, course fit, and consistency in LIV events are primary drivers of the probability. The outcome will be determined by tournament results once play concludes, making this essentially a bet on his performance against the field in Virginia. Market liquidity remains limited, with modest 24-hour volume suggesting few traders are actively reassessing this contract relative to competing outcomes for other LIV Golf Virginia competitors.

### Key factors

- Niemann's top-10 finish probability at 40% significantly exceeds runner-up Branden Grace at 31%, indicating market confidence in Niemann as the most likely top-10 finisher among LIV competitors in this event
- The contract shows no 24-hour trading volume, suggesting limited recent market activity and that the 40¢ price may reflect stale information rather than active reassessment
- Niemann's pricing is roughly 4x higher than Anirban Lahiri (10¢), Adrian Meronk (7¢), and Byeong Hun An (13¢), concentrating top-10 probability among the favorites
- The multi-outcome structure with 20 bound contracts means probabilities must sum to 100%, creating interdependencies where Niemann's 40% implies limited likelihood spread across other competitors
- Course-specific performance data, recent tournament results, field strength, and playing conditions at the Virginia venue would directly influence whether Niemann achieves a top-10 finish

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livtop10
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=livtop10

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.