# LIV Golf Virginia

> Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert leads at 81%, runner-up 52% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livtop5
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.382Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert at 81%
- Runner-up: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm at 52%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $161

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert | 81¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-lucas-herbert-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-lher |
| Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm | 52¢ | +9pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-jon-rahm-finish-top-5-jon-r-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-jrah |
| Will Richard Bland finish top 5?: Richard Bland | 44¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-richard-bland-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-rbla |
| Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?: Joaquin Niemann | 27¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-joaquin-niemann-finish-top-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-jnie |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?: Tyrrell Hatton | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-tyrrell-hatton-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-that |
| Will Charles Howell III finish top 5?: Charles Howell III | 16¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-charles-howell-iii-finish-t-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-chow |
| Will Cameron Tringale finish top 5?: Cameron Tringale | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-cameron-tringale-finish-top-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-ctri |
| Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5?: Dustin Johnson | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-dustin-johnson-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-djoh |
| Will Matthew Wolff finish top 5?: Matthew Wolff | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-matthew-wolff-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-mwol |
| Will Harold Varner III finish top 5?: Harold Varner III | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-harold-varner-iii-finish-to-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-hvar |
| Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?: Bryson DeChambeau | 5¢ | −7pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-bryson-dechambeau-finish-to-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-bdec |
| Will Sergio Garcia finish top 5?: Sergio Garcia | 5¢ | — | $19 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-sergio-garcia-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-sgar |
| Will Dean Burmester finish top 5?: Dean Burmester | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-dean-burmester-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-dbur |
| Will Marc Leishman finish top 5?: Marc Leishman | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-marc-leishman-finish-top-5-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-mlei |
| Will Sebastian Munoz finish top 5?: Sebastian Munoz | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-sebastian-munoz-finish-top-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-smun |
| Will Victor Perez finish top 5?: Victor Perez | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-victor-perez-finish-top-5-v-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-vper |
| Will David Puig finish top 5?: David Puig | 5¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/liv-golf-virginia-will-david-puig-finish-top-5-dav-kalshi-kxlivtop5-ligv26-dpui |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert | Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm | Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?: Joaquin Niemann |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | — | 55 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 27 | 36 | 27 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 45 | 13 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Will David Puig finish top 5?: David Puig −23pp 35→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm −19pp 55→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?: Joaquin Niemann −14pp 27→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm +9pp 36→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?: Bryson DeChambeau −7pp 34→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects market expectations that Jon Rahm will finish in the top 5 at the LIV Golf event in Virginia. At 55%, traders are pricing Rahm as a slight favorite among the field, though far from a dominant position. His price reflects his professional track record and recent form, balanced against field strength and course-specific variables. The market will adjust based on pre-tournament practice rounds, any injury updates, and final field confirmation. The event resolution occurs when the tournament concludes and final leaderboard positions are determined. Bryson DeChambeau's 33% contract suggests meaningful competition for top-5 finishes, while other team members trade substantially lower, indicating concentrated expectations among a few competitors.

### Key factors

- Jon Rahm's recent performance metrics and world ranking relative to the full tournament field
- Course history and statistical fit between Rahm's playing style and Virginia course setup
- Real-time injury reports or schedule changes between now and tournament tee time
- Relative performance of top competitors, particularly DeChambeau (33¢) and other named contenders in practice rounds
- Field depth and whether typical top-5 finishers are absent or competing at reduced capacity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livtop5
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=livtop5

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.