# Will David Puig win the LIV Golf Virginia

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 2 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livtour
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.008Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $106K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Herbert | 82¢ | +23pp | $98K | kalshi | /markets/will-lucas-herbert-win-the-liv-golf-virginia-lucas-kalshi-kxlivtour-ligv26-lher |
| Sergio Garcia | 8¢ | +3pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-sergio-garcia-win-the-liv-golf-virginia-sergi-kalshi-kxlivtour-ligv26-sgar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 |
| 2026-05-09 | 44 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Lucas Herbert +44pp 13→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Lucas Herbert +23pp 57→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Sergio Garcia +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/livtour
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=livtour

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.