# Best AI in Dec 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 9 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/llm1
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.338Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $55K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok | 8¢ | +2pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-grok-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-xai |
| Claude | 96¢ | ±0 | $13K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-jun-2026-claude-kalshi-kxllm1-26jun13-anth |
| ChatGPT | 3¢ | +1pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-jun-2026-chatgpt-kalshi-kxllm1-26jun13-open |
| Claude | 63¢ | −1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-claude-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-a |
| ChatGPT | 13¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-chatgpt-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-oai |
| Gemini | 14¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-gemini-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-goog |
| Claude | 87¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-jun-2026-claude-kalshi-kxllm1-26jun30-a |
| Gemini | 12¢ | −1pp | $741 | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-jun-2026-gemini-kalshi-kxllm1-26jun30-goog |
| Gemini | 3¢ | +1pp | $595 | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-jun-2026-gemini-kalshi-kxllm1-26jun13-goog |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 31 |
| 2026-05-25 | 25 |
| 2026-06-01 | 33 |
| 2026-06-08 | 41 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Claude −6pp 70→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Claude +5pp 65→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Gemini −3pp 18→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Claude −3pp 87→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Claude +3pp 85→88¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 55% probability reflects trader expectations that Claude will be designated as the best-performing AI system by December 2026, based on a weighted average of multiple contracts. This assessment weighs Claude's current market dominance (it reached 95% in the May 2026 assessment on Kalshi) against competition from other systems like ChatGPT and newer entrants. The probability could shift significantly based on benchmarks released in the coming months, major capability announcements from competing labs, and how "best" is ultimately defined or measured by market participants. Key drivers include performance on standardized AI evaluation suites, real-world adoption metrics, and breakthrough capabilities in reasoning, coding, or multimodal tasks. The resolution date of December 31, 2026 means uncertainty will decline as empirical performance data accumulates through the year, particularly around major AI conference announcements and quarterly capability releases from leading organizations.

### Key factors

- Claude currently leads with 55% vs. ChatGPT at 16%, suggesting confidence in Claude's technical trajectory but meaningful credence in competitor improvement
- The May 2026 contract showed Claude at 95%, indicating either market confidence in stability or potential for rapid shifts as new data emerges
- Third and fourth-ranked systems occupy 9% combined, revealing concentration risk around the two market leaders
- Resolution depends on how "best" is operationalized—benchmarks vs. adoption vs. capability demonstrations may not align
- Approximately 7 months remain for new model releases, capability announcements, and evaluation results that could substantially alter probabilities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/llm1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=llm1

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.