# Tigres de Quintana Roo vs Leones de Yucatan winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 20 contracts — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lmbgame
Updated: 2026-07-12T21:20:51.857Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charros de Jalisco | 25¢ | — | $11 | kalshi | /markets/charros-de-jalisco-vs-rieleros-de-aguascalientes-w-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul152130cdjrda-cdj |
| Charros de Jalisco | 18¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/charros-de-jalisco-vs-rieleros-de-aguascalientes-w-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142130cdjrda-cdj |
| Toros de Tijuana | 3¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/tecolotes-de-los-dos-laredos-vs-toros-de-tijuana-w-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul132335teltdt-tdt |
| Tecolotes de Los Dos Laredos | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tecolotes-de-los-dos-laredos-vs-toros-de-tijuana-w-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul132335teltdt-tel |
| Diablos Rojos Del Mexico | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/diablos-rojos-del-mexico-vs-tigres-de-quintana-roo-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142030diatdq-dia |
| Tigres de Quintana Roo | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/diablos-rojos-del-mexico-vs-tigres-de-quintana-roo-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142030diatdq-tdq |
| El Aguila de Veracruz | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/el-aguila-de-veracruz-vs-pericos-de-puebla-winner-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100agupdp-agu |
| Pericos de Puebla | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/el-aguila-de-veracruz-vs-pericos-de-puebla-winner-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100agupdp-pdp |
| Bravos de Leon | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bravos-de-leon-vs-conspiradores-de-queretaro-winne-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100blecon-ble |
| Conspiradores de Queretaro | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bravos-de-leon-vs-conspiradores-de-queretaro-winne-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100blecon-con |
| Guerreros de Oaxaca | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/leones-de-yucatan-vs-guerreros-de-oaxaca-winner-gu-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100ldygue-gue |
| Leones de Yucatan | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/leones-de-yucatan-vs-guerreros-de-oaxaca-winner-le-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100ldygue-ldy |
| Olmecas de Tabasco | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/olmecas-de-tabasco-vs-piratas-de-campeche-winner-o-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100odtpdc-odt |
| Piratas de Campeche | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/olmecas-de-tabasco-vs-piratas-de-campeche-winner-p-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142100odtpdc-pdc |
| Acereros de Monclova | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/acereros-de-monclova-vs-sultanes-de-monterrey-winn-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142130admsdm-adm |
| Sultanes de Monterrey | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/acereros-de-monclova-vs-sultanes-de-monterrey-winn-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142130admsdm-sdm |
| Algodoneros de Union Laguna | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/caliente-de-durango-vs-algodoneros-de-union-laguna-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142130calalg-alg |
| Caliente de Durango | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/caliente-de-durango-vs-algodoneros-de-union-laguna-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142130calalg-cal |
| Rieleros de Aguascalientes | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/charros-de-jalisco-vs-rieleros-de-aguascalientes-w-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142130cdjrda-rda |
| Dorados de Chihuahua | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dorados-de-chihuahua-vs-saraperos-de-saltillo-winn-kalshi-kxlmbgame-26jul142130dorsds-dor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 3 |
| 2026-07-11 | 19 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects an assessment that Tigres de Quintana Roo has only a 3% chance of defeating Leones de Yucatan in their matchup. The probability is based on limited trading activity across 16 Kalshi contracts, suggesting low market confidence or interest in this particular game outcome. The level implies strong market expectations favoring Leones de Yucatan or significant uncertainty about team performance. Resolution depends on the scheduled game result. Key drivers of this low probability would include historical head-to-head performance, current team standings in the Mexican League system, recent form and injury status, and home-field advantage considerations. Any major roster changes, recent winning streaks, or shifts in team dynamics before the match could alter the probability upward. The limited trading volume ($5 maximum 24-hour volume across top contracts) indicates this remains a relatively niche market with potential for wider price swings if trading increases.

### Key factors

- Limited trading activity (16 total contracts, max $5 24h volume) suggests low market participation and potential pricing inefficiency
- The 3% probability implies market participants heavily favor Leones de Yucatan, suggesting significant historical or current performance disparities
- No recent contract data provided about game date or team standings, making it unclear if this reflects pre-season expectations or imminent matchup analysis
- Kalshi contract pricing at 5¢ across multiple outcomes indicates uniform market skepticism rather than strong conviction in any single outcome
- Absence of volume on some comparable contracts (Sultanes vs Tecolotes Monterrey side at $0 volume) suggests broader engagement challenges in Mexican League betting

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lmbgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lmbgame

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