# Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 30 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026

> Above 30 leads at 77%, runner-up 23% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lmt
Updated: 2026-09-21T21:20:51.559Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above 30 at 77%
- Runner-up: Above 45 at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $63

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | 77¢ | −4pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-30-f-kalshi-kxlmt-26octf35-30 |
| Above 45 | 23¢ | −2pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-45-f-kalshi-kxlmt-26octf35-45 |
| Above 50 | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-50-f-kalshi-kxlmt-26octf35-50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 30 | Above 45 | Above 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 77 | 25 | 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | 77 | 29 | 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | 77 | 26 | 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | 77 | 25 | 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | — | 23 | 10 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Above 45 −4pp 29→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 30 +4pp 77→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 30 −4pp 81→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 50 +4pp 12→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 50 −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing the likelihood that Lockheed Martin will deliver more than 30 F-35 fighter jets during the third quarter of 2026. The 97% probability reflects strong confidence in a relatively modest delivery threshold. Historical production rates and existing supply-chain dynamics support this baseline expectation, though the market shows declining confidence as thresholds rise—only 3% probability is assigned to deliveries exceeding 55 units. The key uncertainty centers on production bottlenecks, supplier delays, and customer acceptance timelines, all of which could compress quarterly output. Resolution will occur when Lockheed Martin reports official Q3 2026 earnings and delivery figures, typically in late October or early November 2026. Markets assign only 12% probability to the >50 threshold, suggesting participants expect the company to cluster deliveries between 20 and 40 units for the quarter.

### Key factors

- Historical Lockheed Martin F-35 quarterly deliveries and trend trajectory through 2025 and early 2026
- Current supply-chain status for major subsystems (engines, radar, fuselages) and known delays or acceleration
- Customer acceptance and funding availability across international and U.S. defense departments for Q3 intake
- Production capacity utilization and labor availability at Fort Worth and subcontractor facilities
- Scheduled maintenance downtime or known quality reviews that could impact Q3 output

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lmt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lmt

## License

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