# Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 110 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026

> Above 123 thousand leads at 69%, runner-up 67% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lmta
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:53.123Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-27

## Headline

- Leader: Above 123 thousand at 69%
- Runner-up: Above 130 at 67%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 123 thousand | 69¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-123-kalshi-kxlmta-27janhead-123000 |
| Above 130 | 67¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-130-kalshi-kxlmta-27janf35-130 |
| Above 140 | 47¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-140-kalshi-kxlmta-27janf35-140 |
| Above 124 thousand | 46¢ | −5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-124-kalshi-kxlmta-27janhead-124000 |
| Above 125 thousand | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-125-kalshi-kxlmta-27janhead-125000 |
| Above 150 | 7¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-150-kalshi-kxlmta-27janf35-150 |
| Above 119 thousand | 5¢ | −32pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-119-kalshi-kxlmta-27janhead-119000 |
| Above 126 thousand | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-126-kalshi-kxlmta-27janhead-126000 |
| Above 170 | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-170-kalshi-kxlmta-27janf35-170 |
| Above 160 | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lockheed-martin-corporation-report-above-160-kalshi-kxlmta-27janf35-160 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 123 thousand | Above 130 | Above 140 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 71 | 64 | 43 |
| 2026-09-06 | 71 | 64 | 43 |
| 2026-09-11 | 71 | 64 | 43 |
| 2026-09-12 | — | 61 | 41 |
| 2026-09-18 | 70 | 67 | 47 |
| 2026-09-19 | 69 | — | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Above 119 thousand −32pp 38→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 150 −17pp 24→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 124 thousand −5pp 51→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 123 thousand −5pp 75→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 160 −5pp 8→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market assigns a 97% probability that Lockheed Martin will deliver more than 110 F-35 aircraft during fiscal year 2026. This reflects confidence in sustained production rates, though volumes remain below the higher thresholds of 125 or 170 units. The primary drivers are Lockheed's demonstrated F-35 manufacturing capacity and multi-year contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and international partners, balanced against potential constraints from supply chain disruptions, workforce availability, or engineering delays. The resolution hinges on Lockheed Martin's Q4 2026 earnings report, typically released in early 2027, when the company will disclose final delivery figures for the fiscal year. Current market pricing shows high confidence in clearing 100 units but declining odds at higher delivery levels, suggesting consensus around 110-125 deliveries rather than the 170-unit scenario.

### Key factors

- Lockheed Martin delivered 156 F-35s in FY2024 according to public reports, establishing recent baseline capacity above the 110-unit threshold
- Supply chain constraints for engine components and advanced materials have impacted aerospace production industry-wide in 2024-2025
- U.S. and allied government F-35 procurement schedules are contractually committed through 2026, creating demand certainty
- Production rates depend on workforce staffing levels and facility utilization at Fort Worth, Texas and partner sites
- Resolution occurs with FY2026 earnings disclosure (expected early 2027), providing definitive delivery count

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lmta
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lmta

## License

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