# Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 2% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026

> Above 1% leads at 94%, runner-up 92% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loba
Updated: 2026-08-11T19:20:49.690Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-02

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 1.5% at 92%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1% | 94¢ | −70pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loblaw-companies-limited-report-above-1-food-kalshi-kxloba-27febsssg-1.0 |
| Above 1.5% | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loblaw-companies-limited-report-above-15-food-kalshi-kxloba-27febsssg-1.5 |
| Above 2% | 79¢ | +3pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-loblaw-companies-limited-report-above-2-food-kalshi-kxloba-27febsssg-2.0 |
| Above 2.5% | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loblaw-companies-limited-report-above-25-food-kalshi-kxloba-27febsssg-2.5 |
| Above 3% | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loblaw-companies-limited-report-above-3-food-kalshi-kxloba-27febsssg-3.0 |
| Above 3.5% | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loblaw-companies-limited-report-above-35-food-kalshi-kxloba-27febsssg-3.5 |
| Above 4% | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loblaw-companies-limited-report-above-4-food-kalshi-kxloba-27febsssg-4.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1% | Above 1.5% | Above 2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 89 | 89 | 67 |
| 2026-07-23 | 95 | 93 | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 98 | 96 | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 95 | 93 | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — | 78 |
| 2026-08-03 | 25 | 24 | 76 |
| 2026-08-04 | — | 92 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | 91 | 79 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Above 1.5% +68pp 24→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Above 2.5% +17pp 26→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above 3.5% +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above 2% +3pp 76→79¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects traders' assessment that Loblaw Companies Limited's food retail division will achieve same-store sales growth exceeding 2% during 2026. The 80-cent contract price indicates roughly 80% confidence in this outcome. The current market structure shows strong conviction around 1.5% growth being exceeded (96¢), but declining confidence at higher thresholds—only 15¢ for above 3%, suggesting material uncertainty about strong acceleration. Loblaw's final 2026 same-store sales results, typically reported in early 2027, will resolve this. Key drivers include Canadian consumer spending patterns, competitive pricing pressure in grocery retail, and inflation's effect on comparable-period calculations. The gap between the 1.5% and 2% contract prices suggests the marginal 0.5% range is where meaningful debate occurs.

### Key factors

- Loblaw's comparable-store sales growth rate in H1 2026 relative to the prior-year period, as this establishes the trajectory heading into year-end
- Canadian grocery market competition and any market share shifts between Loblaw, Metro, and other retailers during 2026
- Consumer spending and inflation trends through 2026, which affect both basket growth and year-over-year price comparisons
- Loblaw's promotional activity and pricing strategy relative to competitors, which influences transaction volumes and per-unit growth
- Official 2026 full-year same-store sales reporting (expected Q1 2027), which will definitively resolve the outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=loba

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.